Surprisingly, this is the first time we’ve seen the Nuggets match up against the Bucks. Unfortunately for the Bucks, the Nuggets have been on a hot streak, winning nine of their last ten games. The Bucks will have to play at their peak to have a chance to slow down the surging Denver Nuggets.
Pat Connaughton Out
Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable
Vlatko Cancar Out
Aaron Gordon Probable
Jamal Murray Probable
Denver has been a powerhouse since the new year. The team has finally come back together as Murray and Porter have upped their contributions significantly. Now, with less on the shoulders of Jokic, they’ve found sustainable success.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, has been up and down. They’ve won six of their eleven games in February but have been trending up since the Kyle Kuzma trade. Yet, there seems to be something missing with this team. They’ve struggled against strong teams this season, with an 8-14 record against teams above 500. The Bucks just don’t have the IT factor. Which is weird to say when they have Giannis and Dame.
This matchup is challenging for Milwaukee. The Nuggets have been looking fantastic outside of losing to the Lakers recently. With one of the best offenses in the league, Milwaukee will struggle to stay in front, especially the backcourt.
Even with Gary Trent Jr. upping his defense this year, the Denver backcourt has only been looking better. Murray and Braum have both stepped up. They’ll be able to feast against Lillard on the perimeter and attack.
Overall, Denver has the better tools to win this game. They even have a strong matchup to slow down Giannis in Gordon, which is rare. The Nuggets are the better more well-rounded team. They should be able to get business done tonight and steal this one on the road.
Money line: DEN (-170) / MIL (+142)
Total Points: 240.5
Spread: -4 DEN (-110) / +4 MIL (-110)
Denver just has too many options on offense in this one. Of course, the Bucks have Giannis, but that won’t be enough. Unless Dame can go off for a massive 40+ game, it’s going to be hard for the Bucks to keep up offensively. The Nuggets line is looking solid tonight.
The line at 240 does seem a bit high. Neither team has been running up the score massively. Both teams like to play through their half-court offense, which keeps the scores from ballooning. The under seems like the winner.
Being a home game for Milwaukee, the plus four points isn’t bad. I don’t think this game will turn into a blowout, and Milwaukee can keep it close. The Nuggets have the edge for the money line, but I won’t be surprised if this game goes until the buzzer.
Giannis has been dragging lately. After missing a big chunk of time in February, he hasn’t been over 30 points. Considering he’ll be going against Gordon and Jokic down low, I don’t have high expectations for his scoring output, especially if he’s still nursing an injury.
Jokic has been putting up massive numbers across the board almost all season. However, against strong opponents, he struggles to fill the box score up as efficiently. Especially with vulnerabilities in the Milwaukee backcourt, Denver might go through Murray tonight.
Kuzma has been a solid rebounder for the Bucks. He’s averaging 7 since he joined the team. This is a nice little line with some plus money attached, considering his recent stats. The Nuggets are a bit more challenging to rebound against, but he’ll probably get his numbers still.
Braum has been up and down on his assists numbers. He has hit the 3-assist mark 7 times in their 10 games in February, so it’s not a far-off line. This one feels like solid value.