Woof, we just saw these teams play each other on Monday, and wow, that was a challenging game. Miami only scored 86 points and shot an abysmal 17.5% from three. It’s not like Atlanta did much better, they only scored 98 points. This rematch will look a little different, but this game should have a ton of value for bettors!
Trae Young Probable
Larry Nance Jr Out
Vit Krejci Out
Jalen Johnson Out
Kel’el Ware Probable
Bam Adebayo Questionable
Andrew Wiggins Probable
Nikola Jovic Out
Wow, this last game was gross. Tyler Herro had what might have been his worst game of the year. Shooting 0-9 from three, this game was an insane drop-off for both teams. It was just a ton of missed shots and poor basketball. None of the Miami starters were near their averages despite Wiggins, the only player on Miami to score over 20 points.
Atlanta wasn’t a beacon of basketball prowess either. Outside of Daniel’s defense on Herro, the starters struggled almost as much as Miami, but the bench pulled through to carry the game. The Atlanta bench became sneaky strong after the trade deadline. With Carris LeVert, Clint Capela, and Terance Mann coming off the bench, they chewed up a weak Miami bench unit. That might be the one thing to expect to see in this rematch.
Despite being on the road this time, the Hawks will have the advantage in this game. They showed they have the tools to at least run with Miami. Dyson Daniel was able to affect Herro all game, keeping him off his spots and uncomfortable. If Atlanta can old Herro to another weak scoring night, and get even a little more from their starters, they should be able to take this one easily.
For Miami, they’ll need to figure out how to take Daniels off Herro or find another lead-scoring option. Bam seems like the best candidate to take over this game, but considering how he did on Monday, it doesn’t seem likely.
Ultimately, this game will come down to three-point shooting. Miami showed that without its shooter, primarily Herro, hitting his threes, the offense is severely limited. With Ware and Bam struggling to produce inside, they’ll need to find some action to get their guys open. Running Wiggins off screens will likely be the move, so don’t be surprised to see Wiggins's scoring and assist numbers jump tonight.
The Hawks are the better tonight, though. They were quickly able to handle the Heat in Atlanta, even with Trae Young struggling. With a better bench, solid defensive stoppers, and a little momentum, the odds they can knockoff Miami twice seem high. They’re an easy bet tonight with plus odds.
Money line: MIA (-142) / ATL (+120)
Total Points: 232
Spread: -2.5 MIA (-110) / +2.5 ATL (-110)
If there is one thing we learned from the last game is that Atlanta's bench is much better than Miami's. Capela, LeVert, and Terance Mann are all solid veteran players. Miami is much thinner on their bench. The bench nearly outscored the Atlanta starts last game despite only four players coming off the bench. Atlanta should be able to win back-to-back against Miami.
Maybe that last game was a one-off fluke, but having the total this high is insane when the total score on money was far below 200 points. Expecting these teams to turn it around tonight makes sense, but a 50-point swing in two days might be a little extreme.
This spread isn’t too interesting. With the 2.5-point difference, you’ll be better off just taking the money line. You’re not gaining or sacrificing anything too significant on odds to make these lines valuable.
Mann has been a nice addition to this bench unit. In their last game against Miami, he could get to the rim at will. The Miami bench didn’t have anything to stop him; he was routinely blowing past his defender. Hitting this alternative line seems doable, considering he scored 15 points in their last game.
Herro was suffocated under the defense of Daniels. He didn’t even hit a three, and going against him again tonight, his scoring will likely suffer. With the lineup at 28 points for the over, that’s a little too high to believe he’ll turn it around against one of the defensive guards in the league.
Daniels has weirdly upped his rebounding numbers. Getting 11 in their last matchup, he’s averaging 7 boards a game in February. This alternate line might be a little high, but with +125 odds, it’s a nice swing.
Trae has been a beast, racking up assists. Especially in games with the three ball isn’t falling, expect him to be moving the ball all game. He had 14 against Miami on Monday and is averaging 11.9 this month. It’s a high total, but with the weak defensive backcourt on Miami, Trae shouldn’t have any problem moving the ball tonight.