After one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, the Mavericks head to LA to take on their former teammate, Luka Doncic. Although the Mavericks have faced significant injury issues, they have still been a dangerous team. With the Lakers stumbling out of the gate, they’ve just begun to hit their stride with this new team.
Lakers Injuries:
LeBron James Probable
Maxi Kleber Out
Mavericks Injuries:
Caleb Martin Out
PJ Washington Questionable
Dwight Powell Doubtful
Anthony Davis Out
Daniel Gafford Out
Dereck Lively Out
This matchup should be a fun one to watch. Dallas isn’t nearly the team they should be at this point, but they’ve still been punchy. Missing all of their big men might not be a massive issue taking on the Lakers, either. The Laker’s center rotation is far from the best part of that lineup.
If PJ Washington ends up playing, that will change a ton for the Mavericks. They’ll need his two-way contributions to keep up tonight. With most of the scoring load left to Kyrie and Klay, the Mavs will need all hands on deck to have a chance in this one.
The Lakers are the far better team on paper. However, they’ve been a little unstable. Working in Luka hasn’t been instantaneous, but from the looks of their last game, they’re figuring it out. With LeBron and Luka dominating in their last game, this could be a repeat.
The best chance the Mavericks have in this game is through Kyrie. If they’re able to get a massive game out of him, similar to the Golden State game a few weeks ago, they could keep it close. It's not out of the question, with the Laker’s backcourt defense a little iffy. They’ll also need the role players to be a peak form. Naji Marshall, former Laker Max Christie, and Spencer Dinwiddie all need to show up tonight. Luckily, Christie, in particular, has been dominating since arriving in Dallas. He’s averaging 15 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3 assists, all while shooting 40% from three. If he can keep this level of productivity up off the bench, he’ll be a problem for LA.
Overall, it’s hard to get past LA's raw talent in this game. Luka and LeBron sound like a pairing you only find in NBA 2K. The versatility of their offense is unparalleled in the league right now, and it’s getting better. As much as I like the sneaky chance the Mavericks could steal this one, it’s hard to make the pick. LA is just the safer line tonight, playing at home.
Money line: DAL (+310) / LAL (-395)
Total Points: 233.5
Spread: +9 DAL (-108) / -9 LAL (-112)
LA’s win in Denver on Saturday gave us a glimpse into what this team can do. Luka dominated the court as LeBron worked as a free safety behind him. The tandem was devastating. Even with the odds nearly -400 currently, they’re the safer pick. However, I’d avoid this line and look at the spreads tonight.
This line is just too high for what these teams are bringing to the table. Yes, Luka and LeBron will probably score a ton, and Kyrie can go off for 40+, but neither of these teams is putting up scores like this. Since Luka joined the Lakers lineup, they’ve only hit this total once. The Mavericks have only hit this line a few times, mainly when they’re getting blown out. I think the scoring expectations are a little too high for this game.
This just feels like a value bet. Most of the money looks to be going to LA, so with the line at 9, it’s a solid place to jump on. Dallas has the ability to hang in this game even though everyone expects a blowout. This line might even go up if you’re patient.
This will likely be an emotional game for Luka. These types of games can wear guys out, especially when they are against former teammates who know all their tricks. Luka will probably put up a solid number of points, but 32 seems a tad high.
Marshall will probably see some extra minutes with all the big men down for the Mavs. He’s not an incredible rebounder, but he’s solid. With the line at 5+, he should be fine, considering he’s averaged 6 a game for the entire month of February.
The combo of LeBron and Luka on offense draws all the attention away. This has empowered Reaves as a scorer, but it’s also opened up his passing lanes to get the ball to two elite scorers. Reaves has been upping his assists consistently next to Luka, and with plus money for 6 assists, this is a solid line.
This might be the most out-there line, but Klay is built for games like this. They’ll need his scoring to stay in it, so expect to see his shot attempts bump up. Even though the 4+ mark is a little high, the plus money rounds out the pick a little. Still, use caution with this pick.