Well, this award looked all but locked up until today. It was just announced that Victor Wembanyam will miss the remainder of the season with deep vein thrombosis. He was all but a lock for the award, with his odds yesterday to win being -1200. However, today is a new day, and now that Wemby won’t meet the minimum game requirement for the award, everything is in the air again. We’ll walk you through some of the best odds on players who now have a real shot at winning this award!
Amen Thompson has been nothing short of a revelation this year in Houston. He has flown past expectations as a project guy right onto a short list of defensive Player of the Year nominees. Even as one of the best defenders in the league at 20 years old, there is a reason he is sitting at +6000 odds. He didn’t get off to a hot enough start this year to really have a chance at this award. Early in the year, he was playing rotation minutes before some injuries allowed him to jump into the starting lineup. It’s simply too small of a sample size to land him the award this year. Even though this might not be his year, Thompson is a name you can expect to see near the top of the Defensive Player of the Year list every year from here on out.
Dort has been known for his defense for a while after his iconic playoff series against Harden. Since then, he’s always been a lurker on this award but never really cracked into the top end of the conversation. This year has been a little different. Playing on the best defensive team in the league and currently number one in the West, he’s getting real attention this year. However, he’s still not a great bet to win the award.
His problem just has to do with the team. As a whole, they’re too good on defense. Dort might be the best defender, maybe number two behind SGA at times, but he hasn’t been able to shine. With everyone on that team putting out an incredibly consistent high level of effort on defense, Dort just hasn’t pulled away. He is still a solid consideration, but at +1600, I’d pass on this line right now.
Dyson Daniels is the first guy on this list who isn’t a total dark horse for the award. He’s been amazing this year, averaging three steals a game, he’s been one of the best on-ball defenders in the league. He also has 307 deflections on the year, which is almost 100 more deflections than second place on the list Kelly Oubre Jr. To say Daniels has taken a leap this year would be an understatement. He has become one of the most feared defenders in the league and has a great chance to snag the Defensive Player of the Year.
The only problem with Daniels's campaign for the award is his team. Atlanta appears to be shutting things down for the year, which is odd. However, after trading away De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson’s season-ending surgery, the team is extremely thin. Daniels has still been producing, even down a couple of guys, but the team is falling out of relevancy, which is a big part of the award. Currently sitting at 8th in the Eastern standings, the other candidates on this list are just part of more relevant organizations boosting their odds. Personally, if there is someone who deserves the award this year, it's Daniel. So, if you feel like riding on some long-shot odds, he’s your man!
The combo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen has been a massive factor in the rise of the Cavalries. Currently leading the Eastern Conference, Mobley's defensive abilities have been devastating all season. He’s been playing in a similar role to what Giannis and Jaren Jackson Jr play. A massive 7-foot roving defender that can come out of nowhere for help defense while still guarding a massive amount of the court. There is a reason he has the second-highest odds.
Overall, the combination of the Cavaliers' success, Mobley’s contribution on defense, and the fact he’s a fresh face for this award gives him a great shot at winning it. He is probably the best value bet to win the award currently, especially if the Cavaliers finish number one in the East. Even though he is behind Jaren Jackson Jr in betting odds, Mobley will likely be the front-runner for the award by the end of the season. So, if you’re looking to get Mobley at plus money, you should grab the line soon.
Jaren Jackson Jr currently feels like the default for this award, with Wemby unexpectedly exiting the race. Considering he’s already won it back in 2023, we know he can be an elite defender. However, his numbers from that season are far below what he was back then. He’s averaging about half the number of blocks from his DPOY, but he’s still in the top 10 of blocked shots per game.
When you look at this group of defensive play of the year candidates, there truly aren’t many healthy standouts other than Daniels, Mobley, and Jackson Jr. They’re all excellent players, but they also happen to be on teams leading their conferences, which feels like the large trend here. Don’t be surprised if Jackson Jr begins to fall into the odds if the team begins to struggle. At -110, I don’t think this is great value at the moment.