The Dallas drifts into the All-Star weekend with one more home game against the Heat. This break couldn’t come soon enough for one of the most banged-up franchises in the league. This team can catch a break, with nearly half their roster on the injury report. This should make for an intriguing matchup against a struggling Miami squad.
Dante Exum Out
PJ Washington Questionable
Daniel Gafford Out
Dwight Powell Out
Anthony Davis Out
Caleb Martin Out
Dereck Lively Out
Duncan Robinson Questionable
Terry Rozier Questionable
Kevin Love Questionable
The Jimmy Butler trade finally happened last week; with that distraction gone, not much has changed. Miami continues to be a middle-of-the-road team. Hopefully, things will improve when Wiggins and the other new additions settle in, but until then, this team is in limbo.
The most positive thing on Miami recently has been a few solid games out of Bam. He’s been relatively disappointing all year, but over the last couple of games, he’s found his shot and continues to rebound well. Moving him over to power forward with Ware at center has helped.
Overall, Miami is just in a weird spot. They have their scorer in Herro, their frontcourt is solid, and they gained a solid rotation wing in Wiggins. However, the path forward seems murky. They just haven’t seen the internal growth they need to excel away from the middle of the back. The bench remains the main issue, with inconsistency and dead weight.
Dallas, well, we all know how Dallas fans feel. It’s almost impossible to figure out what’s going on with this team. With AD injured, too, it’s painful seeing how mismanaged this team has been. The team’s success is now on Kyrie Irving’s back, which he’s been managing well. He stole a game the other night against Golden State, putting up 42 points. He’s been dragging this shattered squad into the All-Star break, where they can hopefully recover.
In terms of the matchup, it’s surprising the books have this game so close. I guess they are giving Kyrie his due respect, considering the backcourt on Miami isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. It does feel like Dallas is very outgunned in this matchup, however. They’ll only have Klay and Kyrie as starters, with Max Christie, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, and Kessler Edwards filling in for injuries. This team is beyond thin; it’s hard to believe Kyrie will be able to carry them on the second night of a back-to-back again. Honestly, just go with Miami tonight with the line so close, there is a strong chance they dominate.
Money line: MIA (-112) / DAL (+102)
Total Points: 221
Spread: -1 MIA (-112) / +1 (-108)
Miami is just the more complete team. Even though they played OKC last night and then traveled to Dallas, they’re still a deeper team. Don’t overthink it; just go with the team with better available talent!
Both of these teams are coming off back-to-backs. I expect to see some tired legs out there, and with most of Dallas’ roster out, they’ll be playing lots of minutes. Unless Miami is red hot or Kyrie has another monster performance, we probably will see limited scoring tonight.
With such a close spread, there isn’t much reason to go off the favorite. I’d probably just stick with the money line tonight anyway.
Kyrie has been the only source of offense for Dallas over the last couple of games. He’s been killing it, and with a weak defensive backcourt ahead of him, he’ll likely score a ton tonight, too.
Dallas is small again tonight. That should allow a big 7-footer like Ware to dominate in the paint and grab lobs. Even though Ware’s scoring has slumped somewhat, this still looks like an easy line for him to hit.
Max Christie has been a solid addition to the Luka trade. He’s been putting up solid stats, but rebounding will be crucial tonight. With most of the bigs out tonight, he’ll have to put in extra effort on the boards again. Already averaging 4.8 boards a game in Dallas, he should be close to this line.
This line has not been updated from the Wiggins time in Golden State. He’s had at least three assists in both games with Miami. The Heat just have better scorers for Wiggins to pass, too. He’ll have Ware and Bam down low with Herro on the perimeter for kick outs. Three assists seem easy!