It’s been over a month since these teams last were on the court together. With Cleveland coming out with the win in that matchup, will Boston repay the favor on Cleveland's homecourt? Or will the Cavs come out hot and knock off the reigning champs again? Tip-off is at 7:30 PM ET tonight, February 4th.
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Luke Travers Out
Isaac Okoro Out
Sitting at the top of the East with a 40-9 record on the season, the Cavalries are the slight favorite in this matchup. Even though they’ve been elite most of the season, the last few weeks have shown they are mortal. Winning six of their last ten, they’re struggling with some of the young, explosive teams in the league. With two losses against Houston and a single loss to OKC and Indiana in that time frame, they seem to struggle with other high pace teams. Fortunately for Cleveland, that’s not who Boston is. Sitting near the bottom of the league in pace, this should be a good sign for them in this matchup.
Conversely, Boston has still been excellent but hasn’t strung together a long winning streak this year. They’ve been up and down, which is expected to some degree. As the reigning NBA Champion, teams show up to play every night.
Beyond a strong level of competition, Boston hasn’t been the same team as last year. Jaylen Brown has taken a step back in shooting. Both his FG% and 3% have dropped several points. The eye test on him looks different, too. He’s not as secure on defense, sometimes giving teams too much space.
Offensively, Boston still relies heavily on the three-pointer. They’re 18th in FG% and 11th in 3%, so they haven’t been as dominant offensively. The cracks are forming on this team; they’re not invincible like they were last season. Maybe it’s the extra fatigue of the finals, being made men with a ring, or age, but this isn’t the same team we saw walk to a title last year.
In terms of the matchup, Cleveland has a great team to stop Boston. With Allen and Mobley inside, they create a ton of pressure on the paint on both ends of the court. Mitchell has been playing out of his mind, as the role players on this team have all been highly effective. With the best three-point percentage in the league, at nearly 40%, they’ve been so hard to stop on offense.
Because of this, I think Cleveland will win the game again. Boston just hasn’t shown the hunger to take a team like Cleveland down. Even if they are hitting their threes, Cleveland has the more versatile offense and a defense that can at least keep up. This will be a tight game, but with home court, Cleveland should steal it.
Money line: BOS (-105) / CLE (-115)
Total Points: 238
Spread: +1 BOS (-108) / -1 CLE (-112)
This is a bit of a toss-up, but I’ll give a slight edge to Cleveland, considering they’ve been so dominant this year. The home-court advantage and some of their recent games give me some optimism they’ll take this one.
Even with the total so high, it’s doable for these teams. In Cleveland’s last game, they had 90 points at halftime. With both teams in the top 5 for points scored per game, 238 is still doable.
This game might be razor close, but at one point, you can’t get a ton of value. I’d recommend going to some alternate spread lines to find more value in this one. Cleveland could be a safe bet at even -5 on the spread.
Mitchell has been on a tear this year. Although he’s only averaging 23.7 points this year, he dropped 35 in the last matchup with Boston. Considering he’s the go-to scorer, he might have to take charge as the lead shot-taker again tonight!
With 26 double-doubles already this year, Allen will just need the points. He’s been consistently averaging 10 rebounds a season, with 13.7 points. If he can attack the glass off the pick and roll, he could hit the double-double line easily.
Tatum has been the workhorse of the team lately. He’s been doing everything, especially in the bigger games. Getting 45 combined PRAs in the last meeting against Cleveland, we’ve seen Tatum's shot attempts begin to fall. In the first matchup, he took 27 shots. Lately, those numbers have fallen closer to 20. If he’s not getting the extra shots to bump the points up, the 40 mark looks challenging to hit tonight.
White hasn’t been as solid grabbing steals, but it’s a coin flip with him at just one steal. He’s been averaging 0.6 steals all year, so considering he’ll probably get a ton of runs tonight, he has a solid chance.