Atlanta continues to struggle to get over the hump of 500. Sitting at 19-18, they’ve been solid this year, but they can’t find the extra push to start to build up their win total. Winning two of these last 5 didn’t help, but they may have a chance to steal one on the road today.
Taking on the Suns today, Atlanta is coming into Phoenix short-handed, with their rising star, Jalen Johnson, sidelined tonight. Johnson has been a massive part of the Sun's early success this year. He’s stepped up his game, averaging nearly 20 points and 10 rebounds a game; he’s been a monster on both ends of the court. His productivity explosion has also allowed the rest of the team to thrive. De’Andre Hunter has been having one of his best and healthiest seasons so far as the right hand to Johnson’s ascension.
Combine all this with Trae Young finding his shot again and Dyson Daniels emerging as one of the best defensive guards in the league to create a formidable team. However, there are still growing pains. With such a young roster, they’ve struggled with consistency on defense. Especially with Johnson out, the Hawks give up far too many points.
That’s where tonight's matchup might be challenging for Atlanta. The Suns are, if nothing else, an excellent offensive team. They’re almost completely designed around out-scoring everyone. With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, they have great scoring options all over the roster.
Of course, Phoenix's situation isn’t the best. They’ve struggled to keep the roster happy as the team has gone on a slide. Atlanta might be catching a break playing this team now because it doesn’t feel like a focused team.
The path to victory for the Hawks will be through Trae. The Suns don’t have an excellent counter for him, and they’ll need him to be the leading scorer again. Luckily, Trae is coming off a massive win over Utah that should inject some confidence into his game.
If Atlanta can stay square with the Suns and use their defensive advantage to keep the game close, they’ll have a shot. They are the better team tonight, and I think it will show pretty clearly by the end of the game.
Phoenix is a team striving for change on the roster and court. They reportedly benched Jusuf Nurkic and Bradley Beal from the starting lineup, so things are happening. This all comes as Phoenix is at the heart of Jimmy Butler trade rumors, and the team has slid down the standings. They have won two of their last ten games, and there is no end in sight. The shortcomings of this roster have finally come to the surface, and the massive gamble on this team looks like a failure.
It hasn’t been from a lack of trying, though. This team has worked every angle, loophole, and mortgaged every asset to fix the roster. They just can’t add enough talent to make up for the shortcomings of the stars.
They are 23rd in defensive efficiency this year, allowing 116 points per 100 possessions. They can’t stop anyone. This roster doesn’t have strong enough defensive anchors to make up for the lack of defense from the stars. Pair that with some low effort from Nurkic and Beal; you can see how this team has gotten here.
The matchup tonight against Atlanta will be difficult. Atlanta has a solid defensive identity and several players who can make life challenging for the Phoenix stars. Daniels will be a big problem, particularly for Booker.
However, Atlanta is not a juggernaut of a team. They are beatable, it will just take Booker and Durant to do it. Durant has a strong matchup tonight, taking on some younger wings, he’ll be able to get what he wants on offense. If he’s scoring at a high rate, there is a strong chance Atlanta won’t be able to keep up. Even Booker going against Daniels could have a nice night. If either Jones or Booker can attack Trae on the perimeter, they should be able to create some opportunities.
Even with Phoenix down bad, they still have the star power many teams could only dream about. With the NBA being such a star-driven league, they could potentially turn it around. However, tonight is probably not the first night of the comeback. Atlanta will punish a Phoenix team in flux and steal the road win.
Suns Injuries:
Royce O’Neal Out
Hawks Injuries:
Jalen Johnson Out
Cody Zeller Out
Onyeka Okongwu Questionable
Bogdan Bogdanovic Probable
Larry Nance Out
Spread: +6 ATL (-108) / -6 PHO (-112)
Total Points: 238.5
Moneyline: ATL (+200) / PHO (-245)
Devin Booker Under 28.5 Points (-125)
Clint Capela Double Double Yes (+200)
Bradley Beal Under 3.5 Rebounds (+105)
Trae Young Under 3.5 Turnovers (+110)