In some ways, this is a rematch of last year's NBA Cup finals. An older, more experienced team in the Lakers took on the young, explosive, exciting Pacers. We saw how that went, with the Lakers taking the first ever NBA Cup. So will experience strike twice in Vegas, or will it be the young guy's turn to hoist the trophy?
They made it, from the bottom of the Eastern Conference to the NBA Cup Finals. This has truly been a remarkable turnaround for a team some had already written off. It’s mainly been on the back of Giannis, putting up MVP numbers again this year. He’s had some help with Damian Lillard coming back into form and Khris Middleton finally healthy again. The biggest surprise has been the rise of these Bucks roll players.
Taurean Prince is leading the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, shooting 52% over 25 games. He’s found his role and has been a massive score for the Bucks. Beyond Prince, AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr, and Bobby Portis have all been doing better than at the beginning of the year. As a collective, their efforts have opened up the court immensely, allowing Dame and Giannis to focus on what they’re best at.
Overall, this team has turned a corner, and winning some big games in the Cup has only helped to solidify this core. I still have some concerns about the strength of the competition they have played lately. They have only beaten four teams since November 1 who have winning records. It’s not their fault the East has been weak this year, but playing a top team from the West has me a bit worried about their prospects tonight.
However, I still think they’ll have the edge in this one. Dame and Giannis are two guys that, even against this elite defensive, can thrive. They’ve just been here before and played in these high-level games. The Thunder are on the rise, but they still don’t have the experience as a team in this type of game.
I think the Bucks will take this game late in the 4th behind a monster performance behind Giannis.
OKC has been the darlings of the Western Conference this year. They have been elite on both sides of the ball, with one of the best players in the game. This roster is stacked with hard-working two-way players. SGA and Jalen Williams have been among the best two-man units in the league. They're devastating together, with the rest of the roster playing more support roles.
The Thunder cut their teeth on defense. They have the league's number-one net defense and are pests at all over the court. Their defense is active, with guys looking for steals and poking at the ball constantly.
There is a lot to love about this team, but it also has some flaws. It could be a better team from deep, sitting near the middle of the league in three-point percentage. Their offense depends on creating opportunities on defense. This could be an issue against the Bucks, considering they are much more heliocentric. This will give them fewer opportunities against Giannis or Dame to force a turnover without committing a foul.
The biggest issue the Thunder are going to face is scoring. With so much offense coming through Williams and SGA, they’ll need some help tonight. So far, the role players on the Thunder haven’t been strong contributors on the offensive end, but tonight, they’ll need to step up. They'll struggle to keep up if they can’t find some additional scoring out of the bench.
Overall, the Thunder have a good chance to win this one, and it could be their “We Have Arrived” moment, but it could also show us this team is still growing. They are so young I worry about the bright lights, especially against such an accomplished group of players on the Bucks.
It feels like the Bucks will have the advantage tonight, but there is probably a reason the sportsbooks favor OKC.
Liam Robbins Questionable
Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable
Khris Middleton Probable
Damian Lillard Probable
Alex Ducas Out
Jaylin Williams Out
Adam Flagler Out
Chet Holmgren Out
Spread: +5 MIL (-112) / -5 OKC (-108)
Total Points: 216
Moneyline: MIL (+170) / OKC (-205)
Giannis Antetokuonmpo Over 30.5 Points (-115)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 45+ Combined Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105)
Damian Lillard 8+ Assists (+115)
Carson Wallace Under 1.5 Steals (-160)