Man, we just got Barnes back, and Toronto was looking fun, but now he’s out for at least a week. No one had high hopes for this Toronto season, but they were at least fun with Scottie. His ability to create for others and play both ways effectively is exactly what this roster needs. Regardless, this game will have some punch to it, as Barrett and Dick will have the green light for all the shots.
With the Raptors sliding down near the bottom of the East at 7-18 right now, we don’t have high hopes for them in Miami, especially with Jimmy Butler likely playing. The Raptors don’t have enough with this current roster to compete. They have some nice pieces like Barrett, Barnes, Agbaji, and Dick, but they’re still lacking talent. It’s obvious they’re more concerned with draft odds than wins. However, that doesn’t mean they can’t make Miami sweat.
The spread is set at 10 points currently, which is high considering that they lost to Toronto less than two weeks ago. That was with Barnes, but RJ was the hero that game, scoring 37. Toronto can get hot, and with Poeltl in the front court, they don’t give up easy bucks. This game could stay close unless Herro is lighting it up from deep.
In general, Toronto isn’t a team that gets blown out. They keep games close even in their losses. We expect them to drop this game, but it could easily go down to the wire.
We’d say take the over on RJ Barrett's points tonight. He’ll have every opportunity to score; if they have any chance to win, it’s through him. Especially with a weak defensive backcourt in Miami, Barrett's ability to drive in and attack the rim might give Miami trouble. Overall, I wouldn’t expect fireworks out of Toronto tonight.
Miami has been feeling good lately. They have picked up some big games over the last week with wins over the Lakers, Cavaliers, and Suns. This is on par with what the Heat have been doing all year. They make these mini-runs where the team looks nice until an injury or something pulls them back down.
The Heat are in an interesting situation now, with some news that Jimmy Butler might be on the trade block. It appears both the team and Butler are interested in splitting ways. With Jimmy’s time-limited, it’s hard to say what type of Heat team we’ll see over the next few weeks. They have a couple of weaker opponents, so we expect them to continue their run, but with a critical trade date, December 15, fast approaching, who knows what happens with Butler in the near future.
Beyond the Butler news, this team has been led by Tyler Herro this year. He is having, by far, his best year. He has been shooting the ball at an elite level with some incredible games under his belt. This hasn’t led to wins every night, though, as the rest of the team has regressed. Some of their key role players haven’t stepped up around him, and co-star Bam Adebayo hasn’t been 100% himself late. Bam seems to be trending up, so this team's prospects are on the rise.
We’ll see how they do against the Raptors tonight, but we like their odds. With Scottie Barnes out for this game, the Raptors will be missing a critical piece on both ends of the court. However, they have been a feisty team, and we think the spread from DraftKings is a little off. The way RJ Barrett, Poeltl, and Gradey Dick have been playing, they can upset most teams.
That being said, the Heat are the better team tonight playing at home, they should take this one. We expect a big performance out of Herro, as the Toronto backcourt isn’t exactly stout on defense. Herro will most likely do the bulk of the scoring, so taking his points over might be the move tonight.
Pelle Larsson Doubtful
Jimmy Butler Probable
Josh Richardson Out
Bruce Brown Out
Scottie Barnes Out
Immanuel Quickly Out
Spread: +10 TOR (-108) / -10 MIA (-112)
Total Points: 224.5
Moneyline: TOR (+360) / MIA (-470)
RJ Barrett 25+ Points (-120)
Bam Adebayo 12+ Rebounds (+120)
Tyler Herro 35+ Combined Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Jakob Poeltl 2+ Blocks (+105)