Golden State has been shaky the last few weeks. Part of the problem is injuries to guys like Steph and Draymond, but this team is slowing down. Players like Buddy Hield, who were coming up big in the early games, have cooled off. The bench hasn’t been able to contribute to winning.
Some of this might be due to players returning to their averages. We never considered Hield as a 20+ point a-game three-point monster he was playing like. He’s had moments, but it makes sense that things are cooling off.
This team needs a third guy to step up. With Hield, they were elite, running the Western Conference, but now it’s someone else's time. We think Jonathan Kuminga could be on the rise for them. He’s been a huge factor in both Warriors wins over Houston this year. In their last game against Houston, he had 33 points on excellent shooting. He’s been trending up the last few games, too. If they can get another superb performance out of Kuminga, they’ll have a shot in this game.
The most surprising part about this rematch between Houston and GS is that GS seems to be Houston’s kryptonite. In their last matchup, Golden State didn’t even have Curry or Draymond, but Houston still lost. It’s hard to say if it’s just luck, but something about Golden State is deflating to Houston.
We think it’s most likely the Warriors' elite paint defense this year. They are allowing the third-fewest points in the paint against them. With Houston shooting near the bottom of the league from deep, removing their easy interior bucks seems to limit them.
Golden State has also been extremely stingy in allowing second-chance points, which has been the backbone of the Houston offense. Houston doesn’t score efficiently, but they have been getting the most opportunities in the league. Securing the ball off rebounds has been key to stopping them from winning the inside battle. Golden State, despite its size disadvantage in most games, is one of the best rebounding teams in the league.
We think Golden State will take three in a row against Houston tonight to advance in the NBA Cup.
Houston might be our favorite team in the West. They’re deep with young players and have a lineup for every situation. It’s hard not to like a team where everyone hustles. They have pulled out a 16-8 record and are sitting at third right above the Mavericks.
Ime Udoku has been a wizard with his lineups. He doesn’t care where you were drafted or how much money you make; he wants the best players on the court. That has led him to moments of benching Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. We love to see a coach who is laser-focused on winning and makes adjustments to win games, not egos.
There's a general buy-in from the players. No one is getting too feisty about it, and as long as they keep winning, they probably won’t. It’s impressive, considering how young this team is. Most starters are under 25, with most of their bench under 23. Normally teams like this don’t find this level of success this early.
Will the success continue tonight? It's hard to say. They’ve struggled to win against the Warriors this year. They aren’t able to clean up mistakes with athleticism. The Warriors punish teams that thrive off second-chance points and have been stalwart in defending the rim. It’s a challenging system for Houston to crack, considering how poor their three-point shooting has been. Without the ability to move the ball and attack the glass, scoring has been at a premium in these matchups.
We expect Houston to struggle again tonight. Unless Green or VanVleet can find their deep shot, Golden State's defense has been too good this year. Even with the size and athleticism advantage, Kerr has created a bear trap of a defense. The deeper you get into the paint against this team, the more likely it will snap on you.
We expect Golden State to make it three in a row against the Rockets this year and advance in the NBA Cup!
Moses Moody Out
Andrew Wiggins Questionable
Cam Whitmore Questionable
Jae’Sean Tate Questionable
Alperen Sengun Questionable
Seven Adams Questionable
Spread: +2 GS (-108) / -2 HOU (-112)
Total Points: 221.5
Moneyline: GS (+102) / HOU (-122)
Jonathan Kuminga 30+ Combined Points + Rebounds + Assists (+205)
Steph Curry Over 5.5 Assists (-148)
Tari Eason 2+ Steals (+100)
Alperen Sengun Under 20.5 (-115)