This might be the night's matchup with two teams led by young talent. The Rockets have been feeling themselves, rising to 3 in the west with a 12-6 record. They have been looking great recently, winning 7 of their last 10 games. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been falling apart recently. They’ve struggled to find their footing early this year, splitting their last 10 games 5 and 5. This game would be huge for Minnesota to slow down their fall and knock off a top team in the West.
Houston has been red-hot lately. They’ve climbed to third in the West despite some of the league's worst shooting. They only hit 32% of their 3s and 43% from the field, placing them near the bottom in shooting efficiency. What they do excellent at is second-chance points. They lead the league in field goal attempts and offensive rebounds. With a scrappy roster of athletes, everyone hustles and plays with pace, not only on offense but also on defense.
Houston is ranked second in the league for defensive efficiency. They have been stout all year and punish teams inside with oppressive size. Alperen Sengun has been particularly impactful on both ends of the floor, as he’s been leading this team lately. He’s been an anchor on defense while scoring efficiently inside with impressive footwork and post-touch.
We could go on and on about the roster. It’s packed top to bottom with high-level contributors. Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason provide tons of flexibility in the rotation for Ime Udoka to play with.
This team matches up well against Minnesota. Both teams like to get out and move the ball while having solid defensive units. Houston has the edge on defense tonight, but rebounding is the bigger factor. Houston has thrived off of collecting their miss, and going against other solid rebounding teams has given them trouble. Portland beat Houston in their last game primarily by controlling the boards and limiting second-chance points. If Minnesota can get Houston to take deep shots and control the boards, this game could be very close!
The Timberwolves have been struggling to find themselves. It’s been a hard road starting out 7-7; they’re on a two-game losing streak. The growing pains of trading Karl-Anthony Towns have been more challenging than expected. The additions of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo have not been good. Neither player has been playing at the level they were in New York. It’s been disappointing to see, considering Anthony Edwards has elevated his game again, shooting the 3 with elite efficiency.
Minnesota has been near the middle of the back in defensive efficiency and scoring. They’ve been losing games because of the little things. The urgency doesn’t feel like it's there. This team isn’t making the extra effort to secure rebounds, close out on three, or dive for loose balls.
They’ll need to find their urgency again to take out a hot Houston team. They can’t let Houston out-hustle them on the boards or in transition. They’ll need to play much tighter than they have been and focus on the fundamentals again. We need to see Randle pick it up. He’s been well below his career average in rebounding; that’s one area the Wolves desperately need to improve. They are near the bottom of the league for rebounds, and it’s been a big issue.
We think this game will be close, but because Houston has been punishing teams with their pace and second-chance points, it’s hard to see Minnesota taking this one.
Minnesota Injuries:
Joe Ingles Questionable
Mike Conly Questionable
Houston Injuries:
Steven Adams Out
Jalen Green Questionable
Spread: HOU +3.5 (-108) / MIN -3.5 (-112)
Total Points: 220
Moneyline: HOU (+136) / MIN (-162)
Anthony Edwards Under 27.5 Points (-115):
Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 Rebounds (-125):
Julius Randle 28+ Combined Points + Rebounds (-110):