Portland heads back to Memphis tonight for an early-season rematch. Things didn’t go Portland’s way when they were blown out in their first matchup. Since that moment, though, things have turned around for Portland, winning four of the last six games since their first matchup with Memphis.
Memphis still needs help with injuries coming into this one. Ja Morant is questionable, and Zach Edey is out for tonight's game. They have split their last six games since facing Portland, leaving Memphis with a 10-7 record coming into this one. Regardless of the results of the previous game, this one will be worth tuning into.
Portland has found a new identity, and it’s called defense. This roster has excelled the last couple of weeks on the defensive end of the floor. The return of Robert Williams III next to Clingan has made Portland one of the best rim-protecting teams in the league. With long, aggressive defenders, this team is physical. In their last matchup against the Rockets, only one starter for the Trail Blazers ended with under four fouls. Defense has become a priority for this team, and the results speak for themselves.
However, tonight might be more challenging due to some critical injuries. Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson, and Kris Murray are all questionable, while Matisse Thybulle, Donovan Clingan, and Deandre Ayton are either out or doubtful. Facing a Grizzlies team that will likely be near full strength could pose a challenge. Despite how Portland has been playing defensively, this could still be a game.
Our primary concern for Portland is their scoring consistency. Some nights, they’ll shoot well in the 40% range from 3, others under 10%. The variance makes it very challenging to predict what Portland will look like. Overall, we expect Portland to struggle again tonight, with the Grizzlies being a uniquely well-equipped team to shut them down. With the lack of size to slow down Ja and JJJ at the rim, Rob Williams will have to have an elite night to slow those down. We think Memphis is going to take this game tonight.
The Grizzlies have been mauled by injuries this year. They are missing starters in every game they have played this year. Despite the uphill battle, they’re still 7th in the west with a 10-7 record. With the return of Ja Morant expected tonight, their season could be able to change. This roster is one of the best in the west in our option. They have elite size and strong defenders who can score at any spot on the floor.
Ja will give them back their downhill speed and provide critical playmaking again. We’ve seen how good this team can be when they’re healthy. If they can ditch the injury bug, this roster could easily push for a home-court spot in the West this year.
The only upside of the injuries this year is that we’ve gained a new appreciation for how deep this Grizzlies team is, with Scottie Pippen Jr coming out big time. The second-year player out of Vanderbilt has been incredible so far, dropping 30 points against the Bulls in their last game. Alongside Pippen, the rookie Jaylen Wells has shown up too. He’s been shooting incredibly in this short season. They scored 12 points a game on 45% shooting from the field and 40% from 3. He’s added real depth to this team, but we’ll likely see his role shrink with Morant's return.
Memphis is the better team in this matchup before factoring in injuries. With the number of guys out for Portland, this game could be a one-sided affair. We’d like to hope Portland will hang in there, but unless they have another stellar shooting night, we think the Grizzlies will handle Portland easily tonight.
Ja Morant Over 18.5 Points: Ja Morant has been gone since early November but was seen at shoot-around this morning. There is a good chance he’ll play tonight, and if he does, he’ll be facing a weakened Blazers squad. The interior might be vulnerable to Morant's drives with Clingan gone tonight.
Anfernee Simons Over 2.5 Turnover: Simons has taken over as the defacto PG on Portland with Henderson down. It’s not his natural position, so he’s been known to turn the ball over frequently. Going against a team with two former defensive players of the years on it, we expect Simons to cough up some turnovers.
Toumani Camara Over 4.5 Rebounds: With Clingan gone, Camara will have more opportunities to grab some extra boards. He’s been a solid rebounder this year, even though he’s been the main point of attack defender.