While this draft class is looked upon as weaker than most, there are still a few gems. This includes players like Bub Carrington and Tristan da Silva, who should make their way into the lottery conversation late in the process.
Looking at our best bets to go first overall, Alexandre Sarr stands out as the best bet, while Donovan Clingan is our favorite longshot bet.
Alexandre Sarr has separated himself as the clear betting favorite to be the top overall pick, but given how weak the top of this draft is, and the fact that the Hawks came out of nowhere to get the top pick, betting on a sleeper may be a worthwhile investment.
The 1st overall pick is currently between two Frenchmen. Alex Sarr and Zach Risacher. While both players can’t compare to last year’s 1st overall pick from France, both players have high ceilings as secondary offensive weapons that can also make a positive impact defensively.
Sarr played less than 20 minutes per game this season in Australia's top league, but NBA executives are certain that he’s a top prospect in this class with unbelievable size, length, and speed.
With Atlanta selecting 1st overall and moving into a retooling direction with their roster, Sarr proves to be the best fit with a near 7’5 wingspan with savvy around the rim on both ends of the floor.
While his physicality will need to improve in the NBA, the recent run of early selections that didn’t play college ball should continue with either Sarr or Risacher at #1.
Donovan Clingan was not in the top-ten conversation at the beginning of the calendar year. That all changed with UConn’s back-to-back championship run with a dominant, rim protecting Clingan as its driving force. As we head into the draft month of June, DC is projected to be a top five pick with an outside chance at becoming the 1st overall pick.
Unlike the top two prospects on most boards (Sarr and Risacher), Clingan is a safer prospect after playing two seasons for Dan Hurley and playing an NBA-type role on both ends of the floor. His ability to move his feet, block shots, and screen on-ball are three areas that will easily translate to the pro game.
With Atlanta picking first overall, we wouldn’t be surprised if they move on from Clint Capela and let the young frontcourt of Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, and Donovan Clingan rotate minutes as their retooling era begins.
Ultimately, if Atlanta wants to play this pick safely, DC is the option. Currently, his odds to go first overall are around +1000 on most books, with DraftKings listing him at +1200.
We don't have a ton of draft position odds to break down, but we should be able to get these bets in as soon as the NBA Playoffs end. It's important to get your research done now, so you are ready to jump on the early odds before the market has a chance to move the price.
The closest prospect to Kevin Durant in this class, the G-League Ignite forward is a project player that will need a season to get his footing on both ends in the league, but possesses the highest ceiling of any wing prospect this cycle. The consensus top 10 selection has a few great potential landing spots in San Antonio, Detroit, and Portland, and most likely will receive a promise to go within the top 10.
However, we believe Buzelis has the outside chance to be selected within the top 3. Elite size at 6’10 with some great ball handling skills, the recent run on wings who can handle the ball (Banchero, Cunningham, Thompsons) could lead Matas inside the top 3, where Atlanta, Washington, or Houston wouldn’t mind taking a long-term swing.
In “Bub” Carrington’s first collegiate game at Pittsburgh he dropped a triple-double. Since then, Carrington had a solid season for the Panthers who nearly made the tournament averaging about 14 PTS/5 REB/4 AST. Projected as a mid to late 1st rounder next month, Bub is a solid selection to rise up the boards late in the draft process.
As a 6’5 combo guard that can play on or off the ball, the 18-year-old will be a solid project for a lottery team who has a need for a playmaking guard that can score off the dribble. San Antonio at #8 and Memphis at #9 are the highest spots we expect Bub to land as he can be utilized instantly in both situations.
With shades of Cam Johnson as a lanky outside shooter with a great form that can also matchup defensively against a wing or power forward, Colorado senior TDS will be a first rounder come June. Averaging 16 PPG on nearly 40% shooting from beyond the arc this season, the German forward is a playoff-contender dream as a mid to late first round draft selection.
An eerily similar trajectory to Cam Johnson when he was at UNC, da Silva has the complete package as a playmaking/stretch 4 that can guard multiple positions. Starting at pick 18 with Orlando and ending with pick 26 to Washington should be his range on draft night with an outside possibility at a lottery nod.