The Dallas Mavericks got another massive game out of P.J. Washington and were able to win game 3 at home. They now have a 2-1 series lead and officially have this young Oklahoma City Thunder team against the ropes.
OKC won and covered the spread in Game 1, but Dallas was able to rebound and win (and cover) in games 2 and 3. The total went under 218.5 in Game 1, over 217 in Game 2, and stayed under 217 in Game 3.
Looking at the Game 4 odds, the Mavericks open as a 1.5-point favorite, with the total set at 217.
Clearly, we aren't messing with a 1.5-point spread here. If you like the Thunder (which we do), you're betting the moneyline.
Washington has been the story of this series. The Thunder have done a solid job on Luka, and Kyrie has been passive.
The only reason Dallas has gotten away with this is because P.J. Washington has shot 54% from 3 while averaging 22 points and 8 rebounds per game in the series (28 PPG in the 2 wins).
We think the Thunder do a better job contesting Washington's 3's and find a way to even up this series as it heads back to OKC.
The secret is out. OKC doesn’t need to play Josh Giddey in order to succeed in the postseason. Giddey has played just over 13 minutes per game in this series, scoring 2/8/9 points in each contest. A
fter scoring 110 and 101 in back-to-back losses, look for the Thunder to go more offensive and play Isiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins more in this pivotal Game 4, leaving Giddey on the bench.
With the Mavs rotating big men and Doncic guarding lesser offensive options, his series average of around 10 rebounds per game should be just about right for his Game 4 number, while his playmaking ability at home is one of the best in the league. Luka averaged 10 APG at home this season and 9.25 APG during his four postseason games at home.
A triple-double is on the horizon in another pivotal Game 4 for Doncic, as we believe this 18.5 RA mark will be smashed. Luka’s hit this prop in four of six career Game 4s, including two straight.