The Boston Celtics won Game 3 and covered the 7.5-point spread. Through 8 Playoff games, Boston has either covered the spread or lost outright.
Beyond the obvious betting trend story with the Celtics, the story of this series is the total. Each of the last 2 games of this series has gone under. The under has cashed in 4 of Boston's last 6 games and 4 of Cleveland's last 5.
Boston opened as an 8-point Game 4 favorite, with early action moving this number away from them. Most sportsbooks currently have the Celtics favored by 8.5. The total opened at 208.5 and under bettors have moved the consensus number down to 207.
This is the first game of tonight's TNT doubleheader with a 7:00 PM tipoff.
We led this article by pointing out the run of unders these teams are on. However, the Game 4 total comes in a full 7 points lower than the first few games of the series.
At 205.5, the over would have cashed in 2 of the 3 games in the series. Combine that with a Cleveland team that typically plays to the over at home, and we are in a bounceback spot for over bettors.
The Cavs are 25-20-1 to the over at home. These teams played three times during the regular season with the totals coming in at: 233, 223, and 209.
Buy the dip and bet the over in Game 4.
Donovan Mitchell’s time with Cleveland could be defined by the remainder of this series. The Cavs have all the tools to beat Boston. Physicality, shooting, defense, rim protection, and more, but trailing 2-1 in the series, it will be up to Donovan Mitchell to tie this series up heading back to TD Garden.
Mitchell has played in 9 game 4s, averaging 28.8 PPG and 10.3 RA during these affairs (5-4 record). Hitting this PRA mark in two of three games during this series, look for DMitch to come out swinging for the fences applying pressure on the Celtics' interior defense early on in this one.
Another Cav we are looking to prolong this series is none other than sharpshooting Max Strus. Strus has played over 37 minutes per contest this series while only hitting 5 three-pointers in three games. Look for this number to increase as Cleveland needs more wing scoring to keep up with Tatum and Brown.
In five Cavalier wins this postseason, Strus has 11 3PM, while in the five losses just 6 3PM. If you are riding Cleveland to win this Game 4 or at least keep it close, Strus’s 3-ball will have something to do with it.