NBA Best Bets and Player Props for Thursday Night

With the majority of sports fans and bettors turning their attention to March Madness Sweet 16 action, the NBA has one of it's smaller slates of the season with only 2 games on the schedule.

Nevertheless, we have a complete betting breakdown ready for these two games, including a best bet and 4 player props that stand out as offering great value.

Best Bet: Bucks at Pelicans Under 228.5

Atlanta has won 3-straight games, including a win over the Celtics, but their roster has been decimated by injury, making them a nearly impossible team to handicap.

We have no interest in that matchup tonight, which narrowed our focus to finding the best bet for the matchup between the Bucks and Pelicans.

The Pelicans are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, with a rating of 11.5. The total has gone under in 12 of their last 16 games, and has only topped 228.5 2 times in their last 10 games.

While the Bucks have one of the best offenses in the NBA, it has not translated in road games vs Western Conference opponents. The total has gone over in just 2 of Milwaukee's 13 road games against the West this season.

We think the Pelicans dictate the pace of this game and keep the total under 228.5.

NBA Player Prop Picks for Thursday, March 28

For the two games tonight, bank on Jayson Tatum to reach his point prop easily as Boston looks to avenge their Monday night loss, while Trey Murphy is the player to target in the Pelicans matchup with Milwaukee.

F Trey Murphy (NOP): Over 25.5 PRA

With Daniels and Ingram out against Milwaukee tonight, look for Trey Murphy to continue to get shotmaking opportunities with his 35+ minutes he’s bound to get in what would be a statement win for the Pels.

Murphy is one of the main keys to the Pelicans and their winning formula, averaging over 16 PPG in wins compared to just around 10 PPG in losses. Similarly, he’s torched Eastern Conference foes for 17 PPG and 8 REB+AST per contest compared to much lower statistics against West teams.

With 35+ minutes on tap tonight for the sharpshooting wing, expect his PRA number to hit against a Milwaukee team that gave up 128 points in their last outing.

F Jayson Tatum (BOS): Over 26.5 PTS

Tatum and the C’s take on Atlanta again today in what will be considered a revenge game after Boston dropped their first game since early March on Monday to ATL.

Off 3 nights of rest, Tatum is averaging 30.7 PPG on 42% shooting from downtown in six games this season. 29/34/28/18/27 are his last five games after coming off a singular loss. Look for Boston to win today against Atlanta behind a Tatum 30-ball.

G Damian Lillard (MIL): Over 22.5 PTS

After a rough shooting performance against Los Angeles on Tuesday (3/14 from deep), expect Dame to get back on track today against New Orleans, who he went for 26 points against in 29 minutes earlier this season.

Lillard is averaging nearly 25 PPG this month on a month-best 40% shooting from beyond the arc. As the playoffs approach, look for that 2nd gear to kick in from a veteran guard who knows how to score against just about anyone in the league.

F Malik Beasley (MIL): Under 15.5 PRA

We are taking Malik Beasley’s under, as we believe this game will fit towards the bigs and guards of Milwaukee more than the forwards, who might be marked by Herb Jones, Naji Marshall, and Trey Murphy.

We seriously doubt Beasley will see 14 3-point attempts this game which elevated his point prop for this game.