NBA Betting Strategy from Alloy Sports: How do teams play with their 'Backs Against the Wall'?

This article is highlighting a profitable backtested strategy from Alloy Sports. Plug this strategy in and see what games to bet on. Or create your own. Click here to sign up for free!

Win Percentage: 62.5%

Projected Earnings (from $15 bet): $439.09

Return on Investment: 21.52%

This week’s Alloy Forecast comes from an intuition-based theory that teams play harder after a loss or when they are down in a series. The goal while building this strategy was to test the theory that teams will do whatever it takes when their backs are against the wall (at least enough to cover a spread). Within a few minutes of testing, we found that the data backed up our theory.

This week’s forecast strategy combines rebounds and steals while looking specifically at teams coming off a loss. The factors in this strategy are effort stats. Regardless of how well a team is shooting on a given night, effort and intensity are intangibles that can always be controlled. This strategy shows that these types of teams cover at an exceptionally profitable rate for sports bettors.

The Backs Against the Wall strategy is profitable in 3 out of 4 spread buckets. Most notably, heavy underdogs are winning at a 63% rate with a 22% return on investment. The slight favorites are winning 56% of the time with a 10% ROI.

Stats in Use: Rebounds per game * Steals per game

Metric Value: Higher

Filters in Use: Your Team Consecutive Losses > 0