NBA Betting Strategy from Alloy Sports: 'Aim Low' looks at heavy road favorites
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Win Percentage: 62.5%
Projected Earnings: (from $15 bet): $185.45
Return on Investment: 19.32%
This week’s strategy is one that cashes in for heavy road favorites. Key factors we included in our metric were fouls drawn, two-point percentage and true shooting efficiency. This strategy has a great return on investment for heavy favorites against the spread. The indicator for success is looking for teams with the lower value, hence the name “aim low.” We’re looking for teams entering the game drawing fewer fouls and shooting at a lower percentage from two point range with less efficiency.
What we found in the results is that the oddsmakers are overvaluing underdogs with higher values in these three categories. As with many forecasts we’ve written this year, we’ve found a lot of value when betting on road teams.
From our results this season, it’s clear that heavy favorites are making bettors very profitable. With a 60+ game sample size, teams are winning at a 63% clip with a 19% ROI.
If you’re a casual bettor, you would have net $185 this year from betting heavy favorites against the spread with a $15 unit size. If you have a larger bankroll and you bet $100 per game, you would have net $1,236 this year.
There is also value in moderate favorites and heavy underdogs but we like to highlight spread or moneyline buckets that have yielded at least a 10% ROI. Betting is all about what you're comfortable with.
Stats in Use: Fouls drawn per game * Two points made * True shooting pct
Metric Value: Lower
Filters in Use: Away