O'Sullivan's Thursday NBA Picks: Heat vs Pelicans, Clippers vs Mavs, Knicks vs Warriors, Ja Morant prop
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Seattle O’Sullivan 2021-2022 NBA Season so far: 142-165-4, -$348.25
(Standing Caveat: The universe is chaotic. Life is unpredictable. Things happen. Like injuries. And COVID protocols. In following Seattle O’Sullivan’s betting advice, be advised that you should always monitor your bets during the day to make certain unforeseen things have not occurred which might change your wagering opinion. Thank you.)
Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons, 7 pm Eastern
The Pick: Memphis -12 (-110), bet $22 to win $20; Memphis -770, bet $20 to win $2.60
Memphis is 38-18, is 37-19 against the spread, is 18-9 on the road, and has won three in a row. Detroit has lost five in a row by an average of 14 points. The Pistons are without their rising rookie Cade Cunningham and if they’re not tanking by now, they should be. The Grizzlies are first in the NBA against the spread on the road at 19-8, and third in the league as an away favorite ATS at 6-2. Memphis doesn’t let off the gas; I think we’ve established this at this point. As we approach the All-Star Break, paying attention to who’s playing hard and who isn’t becomes as important as anything else. Memphis might play harder than any team in the league, night to night. They’ll play hard tonight, and Ja Morant will continue his rise to super-stardom. I’ll put down approximately one bet unit on the moneyline to get a little chip back of cash, too.
Player Prop: Ja Morant 20+ points w/over 5.5 rebounds w/over 6.5 assists +211, bet $7.50 to win $15.90
Um, Ja Morant is a good basketball player.
Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans, 7:30 pm Eastern
The Pick: New Orleans +5.5 (-110), bet $22 to win $20; New Orleans +175, bet $5 to win $8.75
After starting off the season 3-16 (and costing me significantly in the process), New Orleans has turned it around somewhat, going 19-16 since then, including winning four in a row coming into tonight. Without Zion Williamson, Pelican forward Brandon Ingram has stepped up his game, averaging 22.9 points and 5.5 assists per game. New Orleans is 7-2-1 against the spread in their last ten games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five. Adding Portland guard CJ McCollum will be an offensive boost in the backcourt and a veteran presence overall. Miami is the better team, but on the road as a favorite, their margin of victory is merely 3.7, not enough to cover tonight. I’ll risk a taste the Pelicans pull off the upset.
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm Eastern
The Pick: Dallas -7 (-110), bet $22 to win $20; Dallas -290, bet $20 to win $6.78
Again, thinking of the postseason here. Dallas is a mere two games behind Utah for the Western Conference’s fourth-seed, and a home playoff round. Every game is already important for them. Dallas has been home for a week and have won three in a row; Los Angeles is on the road and in town to play the Mavericks twice after getting pasted by Memphis on Tuesday. The Clippers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five and have to be worn down playing without their top two stars, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Also, Dallas remembers last year’s playoffs when Los Angeles knocked them off in the first round. The Mavericks will have no trouble avenging that loss.
New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm Eastern
The Pick: Golden State -9.5 (-110), bet $22 to win $20; Golden State -450, bet $20 to win $4.44
Golden State has covered 63% of the time at home as a favorite, winning by an average margin of 13 points. Last night they got blown out by Utah in Utah, and tonight they’re playing the Knicks, who have lost six games in a row on the road and are 6-11 against the spread as an away underdog. I suspect the Warriors may want to get that Utah memory replaced with something more pleasant. Golden State has some work to do to get the top-seed in the West; they also have some work to do if they don’t want to slip behind Memphis as the third-seed. The Knicks suffer at the hands of that work tonight.