How to Bet the NBA: Developing a winning mindset for a successful NBA wager
Wagering on the NBA may offer excellent profit potential for those who know how to navigate this betting landscape.
As an NBA bettor, you’re probably thinking of that one great strategy to cut the time it takes for you to make winning picks. Unfortunately, there’s no shortcut in NBA betting.
If your goal is to have a successful NBA wager, you need to be diligent about studying the game.
You may be supportive of your home team. However, you simply can’t back your favorite team and expect it to win every time.
Betting is serious business. If you want to profit from it, consider the following tips to achieve long-term wagering success.
Bet Against the Public
Betting against the public is a clever strategy because the majority often bets with bias and gut instinct. Therefore, going contrarian is a potentially profitable long-term strategy.
But how will you know if the public is rooting for a particular team? Check the primetime games on ESPN or TNT. Chances are if a specific matchup is televised, the public is betting on it.
To know which team is the favorite, pay attention to the news and commentaries before the game.
It is well documented that the media significantly contributes to what the public thinks by precisely affecting what they ponder. Meaning, the dominant media narrative can influence people’s perceptions easily.
So think of it this way. If the media is raving about team A, then go ahead and back team B instead.
Aside from the media narrative, other factors that influence public opinion include:
Star players like Lebron James of the Lakers, Stephen Curry of the Warriors, and Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks may significantly influence a game’s outcome.
However, the extent of their influence may be distorted once an underdog team emerges or an unexpected player suddenly has a fantastic on-court moment.
The best illustration for these scenarios would be the journey of the 2019 NBA champions, the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors were one of the most heavily criticized basketball teams in the NBA until they completed one of the best “Cinderella” stories of all time.
Nobody thought the Raptors would win during the 2018-2019 NBA season, but Toronto proved everyone wrong. The Raptors ended the Warriors’ dynasty.
The public tends to go for high-profile teams with consistent standings in NBA history. Casual fans are often influenced by their basic knowledge about a particular squad.
So when placing a stake, they’re likely to look at a team’s reputation instead of the probability of a team winning.
Home Court Advantage
Researchers from Pomona College examined the impact of home-court advantage in the NBA.
They found that though familiarity, travel distance, and fans affect home-court advantage, the most prominent factor is the quality of teams participating.
Thus, they suggest that basketball teams focus on their development and performance and worry less about the game’s location.
Another study showed that crowd noise may subconsciously influence a few referees to favor home teams.
Despite all these, there are matchups where teams lose a home game. For instance, on November 16, 2021, the Lakers lost at home to the Bulls in a 121-103 blowout.
Therefore, since NBA matchups can be unpredictable, you should research first before placing your wager.
Pay attention to the short-term history of a particular team. Is playing at home helping them? If not, back their opponent instead regardless of what the public is saying.
Track Line Movement
Before betting on a particular team, you must first know the opening lines to see which team the public is backing and to understand the sharp odds further.
Take a look at this example to understand this strategy better. For instance, the Hawks may be an unpopular bet. But suppose they move from +2 to -1.5. That action signals sharp reverse line movement.
You should also monitor late moves in the last 30 minutes before the tip-off. Remember that late actions are the most significant because big bettors come in, and the highest limits take place.
Rely on Twitter
Getting access to live information is crucial in NBA betting. You may think Anthony Davis of the Lakers is playing, only to find out he’s out of the game shortly before the tip-off.
Twitter is the best platform for finding such information. If you’re quick, you may jump on a good number before the line moves.
Study Injury Reports
In the NBA, an injury to a single talented player can drastically change the outcome of a game.
In the 2019-2020 NBA season, fans saw how the Golden State Warriors fell from their five-straight finals appearances to last place because of the absence of Klay Thompson due to injury.
Thompson suffered an Achilles tear and thus could not participate in the entire 2020-2021 NBA season.
If your goal is to achieve long-term success betting the NBA, you must develop an effective strategy to make more educated betting decisions.
So make sure you keep yourself updated on the latest basketball news and trends for a more successful NBA betting experience.