O'Sullivan goes with the rare under prop bet tonight with Bam Adebayo.
O'Sullivan goes with the rare under prop bet tonight with Bam Adebayo.@MIamiHEAT on Twitter

Friday NBA Picks: O'Sullivan bets Magic at Raptors, Kings at Pelicans, Cavaliers at Lakers, Bam Adebayo prop

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, 7 pm Eastern, Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 pm, Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 pm.

(sigh) So the good news is, Memphis came back from ten points down in the second half to beat Golden State in overtime, solidifying a very nice, three-team underdog parlay which paid off at +1303. Excellent, right? Wrong. The bad news was, I had also wagered on Golden State’s moneyline. This would’ve been fine, had I taken a second and figured out the right amount to put on the parlay to guarantee a profit (basically, upping the bet from $1 to $3 would’ve ensured it). But, and I do this in the ongoing spirit of full disclosure for those of you readers who deserve it, I did not do that. So while I still had a nice day yesterday, it could’ve been better had my brain been truly working. The moral is: when gambling, always have had your necessary coffee.

But hey: hitting a three-team, +1303 parlay?

(beckons with hands for you to give me a nod of respect)

Seattle O’Sullivan 2021-2022 NBA Season so far: 24-27-1, -$96.98

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, 7 pm Eastern

The Pick: Toronto -335, bet $13.75 to win $4.13; Toronto -8 (-110), bet $2.20 to win $2

In their last ten matchups, Toronto has beaten Orlando ten times (nine straight times against the spread, six straight times against the spread at home). In their last 12 games, the Magic are 1-11 straight up. This, fans of Sherlock Holmes will recognize, is a pattern. Orlando guard E’Twaun Moore has been announced out for tonight’s game with a knee injury. Strangely enough, the Raptors only got their first win at home on Wednesday against Indiana, but I think they make it two in a row tonight. I’ll pay a little more to get a straight win, with the cover for dessert.

Player Prop: Bam Adebayo scores under 18.5 points (-110), bet $5.50 to win $5

Prop bets to me are almost too exotic; it makes me feel like a fancy-pants or something. Heh. Not really, but they do require a different mindset than typical plays. Namely, factor in that the sportsbooks know most folks don’t like rooting against things (like, say, dudes scoring points). This is why under bets can often have value. I’m going with that theory with Bam Adebayo against Charlotte tonight. Adebayo’s averaging 19.3 points per game and had 24 on Wednesday against Brooklyn. Tonight, however, he goes up against Charlotte’s Miles Bridges, a solid defender and rising star, and P.J. Washington, a fellow Kentucky Wildcat. Miami’s won three in a row on the road and I think they, and Bam, will settle down a bit tonight. So I’m rooting against dudes! Feels sociopathic! Dig it!

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 pm Eastern

The Pick: New Orleans +2.5 (-112), bet $11.20 to win $10; New Orleans +114, bet $5 to win $5.70

Look, I watched the entire Sacramento Kings/Phoenix Suns game on Wednesday, and was impressed with Sacramento’s guts. Incidentally, I was also annoyed I had mocked them to start the season when I should’ve been mocking Marvin Bagley III’s agent (in an unrelated story, Marvin Bagley III did not play against the Suns). And I know New Orleans has not impressed anyone so far. But I don’t think the Kings are strong enough (yet) to trust them on the road following a big win. I believe they’ll let down a little tonight. Also, I can’t quite give up on the Pelicans, who are waiting until Zion Williamson returns, and a home dog is a home dog.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 pm Eastern

The Pick: Cleveland +8 (-110)

I also watched the Cleveland Cavaliers play the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, and eight points are way too many to lay against this team. I’m not saying Cleveland’s going to challenge for a title or anything, or even make the playoffs this year, but they are not the crummy Cavalier team of years past. They’ve won three in a row, Evan Mobley is shaping up to be the Rookie of the Year (I know, it’s early), and they’ve actually split the last ten games against the Lakers, who are a) old, b) disinterested in the regular season, c) possibly missing LeBron James tonight, and d) striving to go more than a week without teammates physically fighting on the sidelines. Not to mention, Mobley is a former USC player and will be amped to perform tonight in his college hometown. I’ll take the eight points and hope reserve Laker guard Austin Reaves and whatever CAA agent scored courtside seats can avoid fisticuffs.

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