Fats' NBA Sunday Props: Ben Simmons, Trae Young, Joel Embiid, Terance Mann, Mikal Bridges, Furkan Korkmaz
2-3 yesterday, but once Blake Griffin got his +800 double-double, I could just be stressed out by the game and not my wagers.
Sunday Playoff Picks
Two games, 7 plays. Hard to get a sense of the first game because of the key players being out. Hard to get a sense of the second game because the teams have been so inconsistent.
All wagers and returns based on $10. Please check game time lineups before wagering.
Clippers at SUNS, 3:35 pm EDT, Hawks at SIXERS, 8:05 pm.
3-pointers: Ben Simmons (Sixers) triple-double +750 (returns $85.00) I won last night's total flier, with Blake Griffin going double-double. Tonight I'm taking a chance on the beleaguered Simmons, loved by his coach, not loved by the fans, who doesn't shoot, struggles at the line, and yet is the only player in this game who regularly gets triple-double odds. If the game is very close, he likely won't be in at the end, which hurts, but his last triple-double was in the close-out game against the Wizards – and he also did it against the Bucks, Lakers, Heat and Hornets, so it's not like he piles up stats against the bad teams.
Trae Young Over 30.5 points AND Hawks win +450 (returns $55.00) It's hard for me to see how the Hawks win if Young doesn't go off, so this is a risk-reward hedge bet in case something goes wrong for Philadelphia.
2-pointers: Joel Embiid (Sixers) Over 1.5 made threes +110 (returns $21.00) Embiid has made 2+ threes in four of the last 10 games and has been a FORCE against the Hawks in home games.
Terance Mann (Clippers) Over 13.5 points +100 (returns $20.00) This could be today's sucker bet. Obviously, coming off an insane 39 point performance, 13.5 seems like a no-brainer. But this game is on the road, Mann will be in the defensive game plan and he only went over 13.5 in 10 games all season.
Free throws: Clippers vs SUNS Under 220.5 points -110 (returns $19.10) Hard to see this game piling up points without Chris Paul or Kawhi.
Steals: Mikal Bridges (Suns) Over 12.5 points -113 (returns $18.90) Bridges is a momentum player who's scored well in playoff home games.
Furkan Korkmaz (Sixers) Over 13.5 points, rebounds, assists -113 (returns $18.90) Korkmaz hasn't shot well the past two games and he's still ben right around this number.
3-pointers: Blake Griffin (Nets) double-double +800 (returns $90.00) Griffin with 17 points and 11 boards in 40 minutes was HUGE. Just not quite huge enough.
2-pointers: Brook Lopez (Bucks) Over 13.5 points +114 (returns $21.40) Lopez's biggest play was a late block on a Kevin Durant baseline drive, but those 19 points were big also.
2-pointers: James Harden (Nets) double-double AND Nets Win +275 (returns $37.50) Harden clearly had no legs on his three-balls (2-12 and one that went in was a side bank shot) but he still finished with 22-9-9. A healthy Harden and KD, even without Kyrie, I think wins the title. But injuries . . .
Free throws: Jeff Green (Nets) Over 1.5 assists -106 (returns $19.50) Green had 1 rebound and 1 assist in 12 minutes. The Nets bench did not attempt a shot. Pat Connaughton scored 9 points off the bench for the Bucks. Ball game.
Steals: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) Under 52.5 points, rebounds, assists -113 (returns $18.90) Giannis started out slow, then started piling up points, then got stuck around the 50 PRA mark, but finished with 40-13-5 for a 58 PRA and a win.
$50 wagered (2-3), $111.40 returned
Day 29: +$61.40
Total: +$74.60 (63-93 off 156 $10 wagers)
Total: -$44.60 (4-10 off 14 $10 wagers)
Total: +20.65 (252-326 off 578 $10 wagers)