NBA Sunday: Greg Frank picks the Grizzlies vs Suns and lays out why these two high-scoring teams will come in under the number
0-1 Saturday, 63-61-1 overall.
Grizzlies (+6) @ Suns (234.5)
Pick: Under 234.5
Taking an under with these two teams might be playing with fire. Let’s start with the visitors. Here are the last 10 Grizzlies games:
January 4: 140-114 win at Clippers
January 2: 128-123 loss at Kings
December 29: 117-104 win vs Hornets
December 28: 119-110 loss at Nuggets
December 26: 110-97 win at Thunder
December 23: 145-115 loss vs Spurs
December 21: 119-115 win vs Kings
December 20: 114-107 loss at Cavaliers
December 18: 126-122 loss at Thunder
December 16: 118-111 win vs Heat
That’s an average total of 235.4. Now let’s look at the last 10 Suns games:
January 3: 120-112 win vs Knicks
January 1: 117-107 loss at Lakers
December 30: 122-116 win at Trail Blazers
December 28: 112-110 win at Kings
December 27: 105-96 loss at Warriors
December 23: 113-111 loss vs Nuggets
December 21: 139-125 loss vs Rockets
December 20: 126-108 loss at Thunder
December 17: 120-99 loss at Clippers
December 16: 111-110 loss vs Trail Blazers
That’s an average total of 227.9 which all of a sudden makes the under tonight look interesting.
At 234.5, it feels like the high-scoring games these two teams have played are properly accounted for in the total and then some. Memphis concludes a three-game road trip in the pacific time zone on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Grizzlies are the team with the average total in the last 10 games greater than tonight’s number and they’re the team expected to lose here as a six-point underdog. Getting that many points against a team as bad as Phoenix even after a win against the Clippers is telling. Given the quick turnaround, they’re likely not going to score as much here. Memphis throws in a clunker and rather than lay the points with Phoenix, there’s more value on the under as we don’t expect the Grizzlies to score more than 110.
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