NBA Monday: Greg Frank picks Pelicans vs Trail Blazers — does he like the over or under?

1-0 Sunday, 51-52-1 overall.

Pelicans (+6) @ Trail Blazers (230)

Pick: Over 230

We mentioned last week that the Trail Blazers were in the midst of a stretch that might be able to get their season going in the right direction after a come-from-behind victory in the desert against the Suns. Sure enough, Portland enters Monday night against New Orleans on a four-game winning streak and in a playoff spot after 30 games. Portland has won all four of those games by more than tonight’s line of six points. That’s where the side just feels too easy because the Pelicans have lost 14 out of 15 games and are 2-12-1 ATS in those 15. As someone that bet New Orleans under its season win total, I’ll certainly take it, but I’m not running to the window with Portland tonight. With Utah and the Lakers on deck for the Trail Blazers, this could be a look ahead spot for Terry Stotts’ team tonight. In our Hawks-Nets handicap on Saturday we discussed that overs with bad teams can often make sense as the effort on defense usually isn’t there from the bad team. While New Orleans has an over record of 14-16, both of these teams are in the bottom half of the Association in opponent points per game as they combine to allow 232 points per game. That gives us some value on the over at the current number of 230. Our best guess is tonight goes the way Wednesday night against Golden State did for Portland. The Trail Blazers won 122-112 at home in a game that the Warriors were inside the 9.5-point spread most of the way until a layup in the final seconds gave the Trail Blazers the cover. We’re expecting New Orleans to score enough to keep this one competitive and make the side a trickier pick than the total which feels like an over tonight.

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