Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler, left, drives to the basket as Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) defends during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Friday, Dec. 13, 2019, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler, left, drives to the basket as Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) defends during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Friday, Dec. 13, 2019, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)Associated Press

NBA Saturday: Greg Frank looks to rebound with picks for Rockets vs Pistons and Heat vs Mavericks

O-2 Friday, 0-1 Thursday, 42-46-1 overall.

Pistons (+7) @ Rockets (225.5)

Pick: Pistons +7

This looks to be a vintage sharps versus squares matchup. Houston is drawing the majority of the support in terms of ticket count, but the line has moved a decent amount from the opening number of the Rockets favored by 9-10 depending where you shop. That’s an indicator that the bigger bets are coming on the Pistons. Squares often like to bet the better team because it simply feels safer. Would you rather bet on the 17-8 Rockets who have James Harden and Russell Westbrook on their roster or the 10-15 Pistons who have been outside the playoffs for the entire season so far in the East?

But if things were as simple as betting the better team every night sportsbooks wouldn’t exist. The situation lines up well for Detroit on Saturday. The Pistons have been playing better in December, having won four out of six in the final month on the calendar so far. Houston is on the second leg of a back-to-back and just dropped 130 points in Orlando last night. If there’s a spot for the Rockets to slow down offensively it’s probably tonight, in a game they may sleepwalk through. It’s not realistic to expect NBA teams to bring their full intensity to every regular season game. We’ve seen teams tell us they don’t care about every regular season game with the increase in load management across the Association. I’ll take it a step further and question if the players that are actually playing even care about every regular season game.

Houston showed NBA fans what its capable of offensively on the road last night. Do I really expect the Rockets to go nuts on that end of the floor for the second night in a row against another sub-.500 team? The answer is no. I’ll take the points here with a Detroit team that might be coming in with more confidence having started December well.

Heat (+8) @ Mavericks (216)

Pick: Mavericks -8

I must admit, I’m kicking myself for not taking the Heat last night. We hinted at Miami’s intensity being high in our handicap yesterday, but thought that lent itself more to the under than a Heat cover. Sure enough, Miami stayed inside the 5.5-point line but the game went over the total. December may have started well for the Detroit Pistons, but it hasn’t been kind to us so far. While Friday night looked like a Miami spot, Saturday looks like the exact opposite. Just 24 hours after fighting tooth and nail with the Lakers, and still coming up empty losing 113- 110, the Heat are in Dallas to take on the Mavericks. Miami’s two games prior to Friday’s barnburner were decided in overtime against Atlanta and the Bulls. Perhaps there’s an argument to be made for the Heat here based on the fact that the Hawks and Bulls are lottery teams and they played down to their level while the Lakers are one of the NBA’s elites and Miami covered against them. If you’re of the mindset that the Heat get up for another big game, sure take them here. But, we’re more of the belief that the Heat are mentally and physically worn from a game against an elite team like the Lakers. Now they have to come back the next day and travel to Dallas to play a Mavs team that seems to crush everyone when they win. Dallas is second in the NBA in margin of victory and sure enough its 15-9 ATS record doesn’t deviate much from its 17-7 straight-up record. When the Mavericks win, it’s usually not close and that’s what we’re banking on tonight.

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