As the NBA playoffs hit the middle of the 2nd round, I want to share some keys that the public should take note of.
1. Do not overemphasize home court advantage.
Good teams have shown the ability to win on the road in front of a hostile crowd. During the 1st round the road team won 50% of the scheduled games. 19 out of 38. During a statistical report from 2017, the home team in the playoffs had a winning percentage of 64.5%. That number has declined over the past 2 seasons.
2. Adjust and identify mismatches.
Over the course of a series, one player will show his dominance and the ability to overpower his opponent. I would ride that match up and look for a prop bet that involved that player. The players that come to mind are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant, James Harden and Nikola Jokic.
3. Turnovers matter.
Which team turns the ball over the least? They created more possessions and had more scoring opportunities. You can add the team that gets more offensive rebounds to this as well.
The statistic that is relevant to fans of the Sixers and Trail Blazers is the loser of game 5 in the playoffs loses the series 82% of the time. Celtics fans are in a precarious situation as well. They are down 3-1 and only 10 teams in NBA History have come back from such a deficit.