NBA: Wednesday, we’re mining Nuggets and are spurred to pick Spurs

Nuggets -3.5 @ NETS (225.5), 7:35 pm
Pick: Nuggets -3.5
Denver was embarrassed on Monday night in Detroit, losing by 26 points. The short-handed Nets have proved to be simply outmatched against some of the better teams they’ve played recently. They covered despite losing on the road last week against San Antonio, and were beaten soundly by Milwaukee on Monday night. A double-digit loss to the lowly Magic was sandwiched in between those two games. Brooklyn might get Caris LeVert back before next weekend’s All-Star break, but it won’t be tonight. At 3.5, we just don’t have enough points to back a Nets team that usually plays hard regardless of its injury status. We’re expecting the Nuggets to refocus tonight and win a game they should win and do so by multiple possessions.

Spurs +14.5 @ WARRIORS (230.5), 10:35 pm
Pick: Spurs +14.5
Another Warriors home game, another inflated point spread for the two-time defending champs. We gave out the Sixers as a 9.5-point pup at Oracle Arena last Thursday and cashed easily as Philly won outright. As crazy as it sounds, backing teams on the road against the Warriors can provide some of the best value on those teams. The Spurs may be sixth in the West right now, but they’re only three games south of Oklahoma City who occupies the third playoff seed. Any time we can get a playoff team catching this many points, we’re certainly going to take them. Golden State is 10-15-1 ATS at home this year and it’s largely because most nights the Warriors are laying double digits and never have much of a reason to win by that kind of margin. The regular season for a team like Golden State is a lot of get in and get out games to stay healthy for the playoffs. That usually doesn’t lead to covers when you’re the heavy favorite to win the NBA championship and certainly not when you’re laying 14.5 against a team that may end up with home court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs.