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The UFC is making its debut on Paramount+ with an amazing card headlined by Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimlett facing off for the Interim Lightweight Title.
Unlike the UFC’s ESPN days, this main card will start at 9 PM EST with Early prelims starting at 5 PM. Be ready to go because this card is stacked from top to bottom.
Today, I will break down my 3 favorite bets for this weekend’s fight card. Let’s get into it!
Coming into this fight, Modestas Bukauskas has won 4 straight fights and gets another big chance against a crafty veteran in Krylov. Bukauskas’ last fight was a 1st round KO against Paul Craig, another guy who is a great grappler. Krylov’s last two haven’t gone great, as he has been stopped in the first round in each of his last two.
I think Bukauskas is going to end up taking this one. He is a lengthy fighter with super slick striking, and we have seen some serious improvement in his grappling defense over this 4-fight win streak.
Since his brutal Leg Kick TKO loss to Khalil Roundtree in 2021, Bukauskas is 8-1 in total and 6-1 in the UFC. He has two 1st round KOs in his last 4, and I think he may be able to pull off another stoppage in this one.
MY PICK: Modestas Bukauskas by KO/TKO/DQ -105
It has been a while since we have seen Arnold Allen inside the Octagon. The 32-year-old Englishman’s last fight came in July of 2024 with a win over Giga Chikadze, and since then, he has been plagued with injuries. Now healthy, he is returning to the cage to take on one of the scariest guys in the division, Jean Silva. Silva’s last fight was a KO loss against Diego Lopes, and we saw some holes in his ultra-aggressive game. This is going to be a very fun one between a technical striker in Allen and a brawler in Silva.
It is hard to pick against Silva, but I really love Arnold Allen’s odds here. Allen’s UFC career began with a 10-fight win streak where he took out some of the best guys in the division, including Dan Hooker and Calvin Kattar.
His first loss in the UFC came against Max Holloway, followed by a loss to Movsar Evloev. All of this is to say Allen is one of the top guys in this division. I think if he can stay disciplined in keeping his distance from Silva, he can pull this one out.
MY PICK: Arnold Allen +210
I really can’t wait for this fight. Both of these guys are absolute showmen, and this should be a great fight to kick off 2026. Last time we saw Gaethje he looked vintage in a 3-round dismantling of Rafael Fiziev. Pimblett’s last fight was a beatdown of Michael Chandler, and that was an eye-opener for me. He looked good in every situation and truly just dominated the fight to a TKO finish.
To me, this fight comes down to who wins the grappling exchanges. Pimblett is a smart fighter and knows that Gaethje holds some serious power, so he needs to utilize his grappling to his advantage. Gaethje is a former D1 Wrestler, but we haven’t seen much of that from him lately.
Really, I just think Gaethje might be a little past his prime, and this point, which hurts me to say as he’s been one of my favorites for years. I think Paddy is young and hungry and can withstand the barrage that Gaethje is going to bring to him.
MY PICK: Paddy Pimblett to win by Submission or Decision -135