The UFC heads to Qatar this weekend, where perhaps the co-main event deserves to be the main event. With a card full of up-and-coming contenders, we are sure to see some finishes, but don’t be shocked if we have a couple of snooze fests on this fourteen-fight card.
At the top of the card, Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker meet in a clash between the #1 contender and veteran savvy, while Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry battle for possibly the next title shot. Let’s dive into these matchups and talk about our DFS selections!
Dan Hooker at +400 odds is quite disrespectful. Can he pull off the massive upset? The lightweight division’s #1 contender, Arman Tsarukyan, will have five rounds, 25 full minutes to find his finish, and I believe he does just that. Is there a world where I can see a flash finish by Hooker with violence? Perhaps, and with the 19-month layoff from Arman, he could come out rusty.
The challenge Hooker faces this weekend is a different level. Arman Tsarukyan has been getting healthy while watching the division take shape. He has world-class training and has a very good corner behind him. Arman has been known to drag fights to a decision with his style of fighting, but if he wants to make a quick statement and say I am back, he needs a finish.
If this were three rounds, perhaps Hooker can weasel his way out of enough spots, but adding two more rounds may just be too much for the oft-injured vet. Coming off hand surgery, and feeling disrespected by the latest UFC rankings, I expect a focused Hooker here. Perhaps this is a spot to take Arman + over round prop to find plus money, but I do believe he will find his finish on the mat.
Pick: Arman Tsarukyan Inside the Distance (-145, Bovada)
Belal Muhammad has long been one of the most consistent welterweights in the world. But let’s talk about his recent opponents, as none of them are that impressive to me. We have talked about this in previous articles, and we usually come out on the right side here. Competition matters, and some fighters, like Jack Don ella, had the opportunity to climb the charts beating washed-up has-beens. Well, let's look at Belal a bit closer.
His last wins have come against Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Dhiego Lima, Lyman Good…tell me to stop when one of these names jumps off the page over the last few years…(crickets, crickets)
Let’s talk about who Ian Machado has recently faced: Carlos Prates, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Michael Page, Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, Daniel Rodriguez, Song Kenan, and Gabe Green. Prates and Rakhmonov alone are the top of the division as we speak of this very instance, and Page is a threat on the feet against anyone. Now we can talk about styles, and yes Ian Machado has fought a lot of strikers, and Belal can bring a wrestling element, but he's just not that guy.
Ian Machado’s elite cardio, ability to keep distance, get up when taken down, and striking discipline should make him a difficult opponent for Belal “forget the name” Muhammed. Belal may find a takedown, and he may find some short-term success with striking, but Ian is too elite and is ready for the next step.
Pick: Ian Machado Garry by Decision (-110, FanDuel)
I have to take the most expensive here as he not only has a chance to find a quick submission/ ground-pound KO, if he can get it to the mat quickly, but he has five rounds to stack damage and control time. Hooker may offer just enough resistance to allow Arman to rack up even more points before the eventual finish or scorecards.
Garry is a volume striker and if Belal wants to play that game, Ian could see over 100 significant strikes. I believe Belal will be smarter than that, and we could see some garbage time wrestling, but I still expect Garry to have his hand raised, and he should get us enough points to warrant a play here as he averages over 80 fantasy points per fight.
Almabayev is one of the most promising rising flyweights, and his chain grappling could rack us up some points in this one. Asu has a tough fight on his hands. Perez has definitely seen, better competition, which could make for a three-round fight. If Asu can’t find the finish, he could drag this fight out for three rounds, slowly racking up points to the win.
Almakhan vs. Topuria is going to be a good fight and one that is difficult to handicap. On one hand, you have the star power name in Topuria, and on the other, you have Bezkhat, who may have the better experience to this point. Some may forget he took Umar Nurmagomedov to a decision, and while he lost that pretty handily, he hurt Umar and showed signs of good things to come. Don’t be shocked if he finds a counter punch knockout or finds a decision at the end of this one.
A value play with real upset potential. A lot of people may be on the other side, especially for a fighter on his second go around with the UFC, but one thing we know is true: Naurdiev struggles with wrestlers. Loder is just that, a strong wrestler with physicality and control ability that can steal minutes. If he can avoid the KO, keep his chin down and work, he can gas out Naurdiev in rounds two and three, racking up enough points for a decision win or loss.
Grad is only being selected because we had no choice, BUT I do still think even if he loses, he could do enough to rack up 50 points. All we need is for him to drag this to a decision, get some control time, and cause damage. We saw in his previous loss that he scored 40 points, and if he can somehow find a finish or a victory, his upside could be 75-100 points as he racked up 113 points in his victory over Alexander.