After last week’s main event debacle between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane, we could be looking at a fireworks finish in this one. This weekend’s UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas features a trio of intriguing matchups headlined by Steve Garcia and David Onama.
Last week our UFC Article crushed, cashing all four bets, while receiving a push result in the Aspinall fight. In this week’s main event, both men are dangerous strikers looking to make a statement in the featherweight division. Let’s break down that fight, plus the two fights leading up to the main event!
The main event could bring fireworks as Steve Garcia looks to find his sixth KO/TKO in his last seven fights. On the other hand, Onama looks like a finisher on paper, but in eight UFC fights, he has three wins by finish. Onama is coming into this fight going to a decision in three straight and four of his last five.
I expect Garcia to be the aggressor here as he presses forward, using his jab to close the distance to find Onama with strikes inside the pocket. Almost every statistical category favors Garcia here except strikes landed, which is very close, 5.24 for Onama to 5 for Garcia landed per minute.
Garcia has a higher striking accuracy, more power, and he absorbs significantly fewer strikes; in fact, Onama absorbs double the strikes per minute. That simply won’t do versus an aggressive Garcia. If Garcia wants to take this to the ground, he also has an advantage there with a higher takedown accuracy, but with the much better takedown defense at 88% to 52%.
I still cannot believe UFC rankings have Onama #11 and Garcia unranked when Garcia has fought the tougher competition and actually finishes his fights. Garcia should feel some type of way about these rankings and want to make another statement. I like him to get this to the mat for a ground and pound finish, giving Onama his first loss by finish.
Pick: Steve Garcia ML (-114, FanDuel)
Prediction: Garcia wins by knockout in Round 2 (TBD)
The heavyweight division was heavy on last week’s card, and we got another good one here as Waldo Cortes-Acosta takes on former PFL champion Ante Delija. This is an intriguing matchup to break down, and we could either be in for a quick finish, or if that doesn’t happen, we will see the judges' cards.
Cortes-Acosta is known for his high-volume striking, with seven finishes in his fourteen fights, six coming by KO/TKO. He is coming off a decision loss to Sergei Pavlovich, who is a very good fighter losing to only Volkov and Aspinall in his last five fights.
Though Ante was a champion in PFL and beat the likes of Renan Ferreira, I believe this is a step up for Ante. This is only his second UFC fight compared to Waldo, in which this will be his eighth. Ante is absolutely dangerous with twelve KO/TKO and seven submission victories in his career, but he also has five losses by KO/TKO and if Waldo can find his range, he could add his seventh victory by KO.
Cortes is 7-2 in the UFC, and he understands how to use his range to avoid danger in this division and is quick enough to beat his opponents, more times than not, to get a quick point with a job or out-volume his opponents.
I have not been the biggest fan of Waldo, but I believe if he can keep range, pick his spots to enter the void, and use his 71% takedown defense to keep this standing, I do think he can find a KO shot or drag this to a decision victory.
Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta ML (+117, BetUS)
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta Double Chance KO/Decision (TBD)
At welterweight, Themba Gorimbo meets Jeremiah Wells in a battle between two fighters with contrasting momentum. Wells could be on his way out of the UFC if he keeps losing, as he enters on a two-fight losing streak. Gorimbo enters this bout off a loss to veteran Vicenty Luque, looking to get right back in the win column.
Losing to a Vicente Luque by a quick submission should not have Gorimbo down, it should have sharpened his skills coming into this fight camp. Prior to that fight he had reeled off four straight UFC wins. Gorimbo is four years younger, has a higher ceiling, and wins basically every statistical category over wells outside of submission attempts.
Gorimbo lands more strikes at a much higher accuracy 61% to 43%, he also absorbs fewer strikes while averaging more takedowns, 4.8 to 3, with a higher takedown accuracy 65% to 44%, and better takedown defense. Gorimbo’s background getting to the UFC alone has me believing he not only has the tools, but the mental abilities to push through adversity when he faces it.
Wells is an explosive athlete with three of his four UFC wins coming by finish. Gorimbo needs to be on his Ps and Qs at all times, but Wells has not looked great in his last three fights, and his competition has been very poor. He has lost back-to-back fights to Max Griffin and Carlston Harris and took Matthew Semelsberger to a split decision win. Give me Gorimbo.
Pick: Themba Gorimbo ML (-130, DraftKings)
Prediction: Gorimbo wins by decision (TBD)