We are heading to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, this weekend, as the UFC will be hosting a fun Fight Night at the Farmasi Arena. The card, obviously, will feature a ton of Brazilian fighters from Prospects to Former champs.
Headlined by Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot, we are in for a very fun night of fights. Today, I will break down my 3 favorite bets for this weekend’s fight card. Let’s get into it!
This should be an interesting fight as we have a Submission specialist, Jafel Filho, versus and wrestler in Carpenter. Both of these fighters are coming into this fight off a loss, but both still have bright futures ahead if they can get back on track here. Carpenter has 6 finishes in his 8 professional wins, while Filho has finished 15 of his 16 wins.
I think this fight comes down to Carpenter's ability to control the top position. There is no question that he is going to shoot. The question is whether he can keep Filho out of attacking positions from his back.
Carpenter is amazing with his top pressure and will likely do some damage if he can get out of Filho’s guard. Filho has struggled with his wrestling defense, and that's why I think Carpenter will be able to take advantage of this fight.
MY PICK: Clayton Carpenter -122
Since moving up to 135, Figgy has gone 3-2, but lost two straight coming into this one. His losses were against very high-level opponents in Petr Yan and Corey Sandhagen, but he still needs to get back on track. He now takes on Montel Jackson, who is a rising star in the Bantamweight division. Jackson is 9-2 in his UFC career, which has spanned since 2018; however, this will be his toughest test to date.
Jackson is massive for this weight class, standing at 5’10 with a 75-inch reach. That compares to Figgy’s 5’5 stature with a 68-inch reach. His issue in this fight is going to be closing the distance against Jackson’s massive reach advantage. Figgy is going to have to keep Jackson on his back foot in order to win this fight.
He needs to attack the body and hope to land some takedowns to slow down Jackson and his incredible counterstriking. The only value on this fight is Figgy ML, and I honestly like our chances at these odds. I think Figgy is going to have a great game plan coming into this fight. He is a proven veteran and former UFC champ, and even as he enters the back end of his career, he should be able to edge this one out.
MY PICK: Deiveson Figueiredo +260
This is going to be a very fun one between two very high-level fighters. Former Champ Charles Oliveira will look to avenge his KO loss to Ilia Topuria last time out, but it will be tough with Mateusz Gamrot looking to secure a place in title contention. The Polish Fighter, Gamrot, is a high-level grappler who fights with a ton of pressure.
However, Charles is dangerous from any position, including his back, which will give Gamrot some trouble. Since losing his belt to Islam Makhachev back in 2022, Charles is 2-2 with losses to Ilia and Arman Tsarukyan. Gamrot is 4-1 in his last 5, with only a split decision loss to Dan Hooker in an absolute battle.
I think this fight comes down to how well Charles can hold off Gamrot’s pressure. Charles is great basically in any position, but he has never been a pure wrestler. I also have some fears about Charles' recent fights.
He lost to two of the best guys in the weight class in Tsarukyan and Topuria, which is fine, but his wins are not that impressive. He beat old and losing Michael Chandler and Beneil Dariush, who also may be over the hill. I think Gamrot pulls this one off in enemy territory and makes a statement, as this will be his biggest win.
MY PICK: Mateusz Gamrot -110