Date: Saturday, August 2, 2025
Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast: ESPN / ESPN+
Main Card Start: 9:00 PM ET
Prelims Start: 6:00 PM ET
UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend with a twelve-fight, jam packed fight night, headlined by rising flyweight contenders Tatsuro Taira and Hyunsung Park. With a last-minute headliner shakeup, Park steps in a week early to keep his unbeaten streak alive.
This card offers high-stakes action across the board, with numerous matchups I can’t wait to watch. The main card looks to be full of excitement as we could see a finish in every single fight! If you’re looking for official VIP picks and client-only bets, head to the link in my bio across all social platforms to claim your free 3-day trial and get exclusive access before the lines move.
Main Event: Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira (16-1) vs. Hyunsung Park (10-0)
Tatsuro Taira brings a solid all-around game, with multiple paths to victory. In 16 career wins, he has 5 by KO and 7 by Submission. He is coming off a split decision loss to one of the top fighters in the division, Brandon Royval, where he had 6 takedowns. Taira is a solid striker, landing almost 3 significant strikes per minute with a 60% accuracy. He also averages nearly 3 takedowns over 15 minutes and looks to work in grappling to get you to the ground for a submission.
Park is no slouch, coming in at 10-0; these two have a familiar opponent in Carlos Hernandez. Taira finished him by KO in the 2nd round, while Park submitted him in the 1st. Park has at least 1 takedown in four of his last five fights, and I believe he will look to find his spot to grapple Taira. Park can strike, but his accuracy is far less reliable than Taira’s. Taira is much more accurate with his strikes and can also outmatch Park on the ground at this stage in their careers. Park has never been over 50 significant strikes in a fight, and Taira hasn’t been over 61. I expect this to go to the ground.
Best Bet: SGP: Taira ML + o1.5 Rounds (-125)
Mateusz Rebecki is one of the division’s most underrated grinders, as we saw in his last war vs Orolbai. A relentless grappling style with a granite chin has made him a nightmare matchup for anyone. He averages 4.7 significant strikes per minute and 3.8 average takedowns. Though Duncan has been on a run and is very dangerous, Rebecki is better everywhere with more power, and should be able to find Chris on the feet.
Duncan, who has been able to out-tough his opponents, gets a tough one here. Duncan does have some power and will look to strike, but can be quick at snatching up a submission. Rebecki is the better boxer and wrestler, who will put out more volume over 3 rounds, if it gets there. Rebecki’s wrestling and ground and pound could be too much here.
Suggested Bet: Rebecki ML (-200) Parlay Piece
Lightweight
Elves Brener (16-5) vs. Esteban Ribovics (14-2)
This could be the fight of the night here between these two. Elves Brener is coming off a war, getting KO’d by Julian Alvarez, and comes in on a two-fight losing streak. It doesn’t get much easier facing Esteban Ribovics, who is the cleaner striker bringing more volume with a higher significant strike differential.
Brener brings more power behind his punches, but he has to land those first. Ribovics uses a very good technique and should be able to avoid a wild shot from Brener. Ribovics likes to pick his shots and work in his strikes. In 16 fights, he has 12 finishes, but four of his fights in the UFC have gone to a decision. I expect this to be a back-and-forth war with Ribovics getting the better of most exchanges. Expect fireworks early with a possible finish inside two rounds. This is a great LIVE betting spot to see how the fight starts.
Suggested Bet: Ribovics ML (-210) Parlay Piece
Veteran Karol Rosa looks to bounce back after a unanimous decision loss to Ailin Perez. In her last eleven fights, she has not lost two fights in a row, so Nora has her work cut out for her. All eleven of those fights went to a decision. Nora comes in as a dog on a 3-1 fight streak, two of those coming by finish in the 2nd round.
This will be a clash of styles. Rosa likes to volume strike and outcardio her opponents, keeping good range. Nora may not allow that range as she gets after it and is aggressive. Nora is the nastier fighter here, and it comes down to who can implement their game plan. I expect that if Nora can get her hands on Rosa, she can outdo her for 3 rounds. Experience may win here, but I think dog or pass is the best situation here!
Suggested Bet: Nora Cornolle ML (+158)
Two longtime welterweight warriors collide in a fight with two aged and worn-out fighters. I see this fight going only two ways: decision by Neil Magny or KO by Zaleski. I truly believe if Magny can weather 3 rounds with Zaleski, it means he was able to stay away from major damage and likely get Zaleski on the ground.
Magny is coming off back-to-back devastating losses, two real killers, but he has fought the who’s who of the welterweight division over his past five fights, compared to Zaleski. The damage may be too much recently, but I trust Magny not to lose three straight here. With these types of odds, I must back Magney one more time, even when another knockout could be looming. This is a great LIVE betting spot to see how the fight starts.
Suggested Bet: Niel Magney +3.5 (-120) & Niel Magney ML (+170)
A sleeper on this card, one that could also be up for fight of the night, especially if it goes the distance. If this goes the distance, we will likely see damage on both sides. Danny Silva and Kevin Vallejos are exciting prospects on the rise. Silva is a well-rounded striker with strong boxing fundamentals and a 100% takedown defense.
Vallejos, meanwhile, brings a more explosive, dynamic style and has won four straight fights by finish. The key will be Silva’s ability to control the pace and avoid the KO that everyone is expecting Vallejos to bring. Vallejos needed only 14 and 48 significant strikes before he got his last two opponents out of there, while Silva has gone to nothing but decisions. Silva does have more output and significant strikes landed, but that is also attributed to how long these guys go in fights. I believe this is going to be a war, and we see a decision from the judges handed out to the man who gives out the most damage.
Suggested Bet: Kevin Vallejos ML (-400) Parlay Piece & Vallejos by Decision (+240)
Rinya Nakamura is one of the most hyped bantamweight prospects from Japan, and boy, did he lay a stinker on us last fight. He owes himself, and us, a win here, and I think he gets it. He brings elite wrestling credentials and solid hands. He isn’t afraid to exchange on the feet, as we saw in his last fight, but we also hope he learned in that fight that striking is not how he wins fights.
Both fighters have offensive wrestling skills, but Fletcher's takedown defense is awful. I believe we will see a wrestling clinic from Nakamura. He cannot be timid in this fight because Fletcher will be looking for a finish, but Nakamura should be too much here. We could see a finish, but I trust Fletcher to keep this competitive, and we should see some back-and-forth scrambles and technique, but Nakamura’s control and power may simply be too much.
Suggested Bet: Rinya Nakamura (-400) Parlay Piece & Nakamura by Decision (-120)