The UFC celebrates one of its biggest weeks of the year with a can’t-miss main card! UFC 317 will be live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for International Fight Week 2025. With two high-stakes title fights, veterans, and fast-rising contenders, this card has it all, top to bottom!
In the main event, featherweight champion Ilia Topuria moves up to lightweight to challenge the former 155-pound king Charles Oliveira. In the co-main, flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja returns to defend his belt against top contender Kai Kara-France.
Joshua Van is on another quick turnaround, taking a huge step-up vs Brandon Royval. And we could see the night start with three straight finishes in the early Prelims!
Division: Lightweight – Title Fight
● Topuria: 16-0-0 | 6 KO, 8 Sub | 74% Finish Rate
● Oliveira: 35-10-0 | 10 KO, 21 Sub | 86% Finish Rate
This is one of the most anticipated matchups of the year! It also just recently came to fruition with both Topuria and Islam Mahkachev moving up in weight classes to pursue double-champ status. Topuria enters this fight with an aura that few possess. He is poised, yet powerful, ruthless, yet cerebral.
He is fresh off a dominant title-defending performance over Max Holloway after taking the belt from future Hall of Famer Alexander Volkanovski. Known for his elite boxing, his wrestling background is slept on, giving Topuria many paths to victory here against a damaged and worn-down Oliviera.
Oliveira is arguably the most dangerous finisher in UFC history, who also holds the record for bonus money in UFC history. Oliveira has submitted or knocked out the likes of Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler, and Tony Ferguson. His aggressive striking, offensive BJJ, and willingness to take risks make him unpredictable and lethal at all moments. If Oliveira can withstand Topuria’s pressure without making costly mistakes, this could go to the championship rounds.
Best Bet: Topuria ML (-450, Parlay Piece) & Topuria Win by KO Rounds 1,2 or 3 (-105, FD)
Division: Flyweight – Title Fight
● Pantoja: 29-5-0 | 8 KO,11 Sub | 53% Finish Rate
● Kara-France: 25-11-0 | 11 KO, 3 Sub | 62% Decision Rate
Pantoja is looking to defend his belt for a 4th consecutive fight. He has been in some wars, going 5 full rounds in 3 of his last 4 fights. He has taken a lot of damage but has also fought the best of the best and found a way every time. I expect Pantoja to dominate control time in this fight as he will not want to exchange blows for 5 rounds with Kai.
His smothering grappling, chain submissions, and endless cardio have led him to wins over elite names like Brandon Moreno (twice), Brandon Royval, and Manel Kape. The Brazilian has never been finished in his career, and I don’t think it starts now.
Kai Kara-France, on the other hand, is a surgical striker with a background in kickboxing, and he can put the lights out on anyone. I do believe everyone should sprinkle, or at least hedge, a Pantoja wager as Kai’s +220 ML price is very wide! These two know each other, and I expect a 5 round war here.
While there is a lot of love for Kai in the market, I think much of it is recency bias with his 1st round KO over title contender Steve Erceg. Before the victory over Erceg, he was coming off back-to-back losses. Before that, he beat Cody Garbrandt and Rogerio Bontorin, while losing to the likes of Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno twice. I believe Pantoja defends it for at least 1 more!
Best Bet: Pantoja Sub/Dec (-155, Bet365)
Division: Flyweight
● Royval: 17-7-0 | 4 KO, 9 Sub | 56% Finish Rate
● Van: 14-2-0 | 7 KO, 2 Sub | 71% Decision Rate
This fight has the fight of the night written all over it. I am not rolling out a finish by either side, but we have two absolute dogs here, and I think we are going the distance. Royval has been at the top of the division for years and has seen everyone. He is coming off back-to-back split decision wins, and I believe he wants to make a statement vs another young hot prospect.
We have seen time and time again that there are levels to the UFC, and I think we see that again here. While I do believe Van, only 23 years old, will look good on Saturday night, this is a big step up in competition. It is also another quick turnaround for Van as he fought in March and June.
He has quickly become one of the most talked-about flyweight prospects, especially staying active with his 5th fight since September last year. Van’s boxing is clean, and he’s shown great composure in tough fights. I expect a brawl between these two, but I do believe Royval finds himself winning more of those exchanges. I love Royval as the dog, and this is a hammer spot if your bankroll allows for it, no more than 3%!
Best Bet: Royval ML (+109, Novig)
Division: Lightweight
● Dariush: 22-6-1 | 5 KO, 8 Sub | 50% Finish Rate
● Moicano: 18-6-1 | 2 KO, 10 Sub | 66% Finish Rate
This fight could potentially be up there for fight of the night if they decide to brawl it out. This lightweight bout features two veteran grapplers looking to get back in the win column. Beneil Dariush, coming off back-to-back 1st-round KO losses, needs this win, or there are rumblings this could be it for him. He hasn’t fought since December of 2023, but he has the grappling and wrestling game to keep Moicano off balance. If he avoids the KO, he could get Moicano in trouble late.
Moicano is looking to bounce back from a loss to Islam Mahkachev, and I struggle to find where his motivation is right now. He just got paid his biggest paycheck in his last fight for taking a loss. It is also reported that he has been pretty busy in the business world and does multiple podcasts. Without a clear focus and motivation, I will back the guy who has possibly 1 or 2 more fights to give to this game and could impose his ground game here.
Best Bet: Dariush ML (+110, Novig)
Division: Bantamweight
● Talbott: 9-1-0 | 7 KO, 1 Sub | 99% Finish Rate
● Lima: 12-0-0 | 4 KO, 3 Sub | 50% Finish Rate
Talbott was one of the most hyped UFC fighters of the last couple of years. It was all derailed at UFC311 when Talbott lost to Raoni Barcelos, a +700 dog. Talbott was exposed in that match against an experienced dog, and we learned if Talbott can’t find that knockout shot, he can get taken down and controlled.
It will not get much easier for him here, and the UFC did him no favors with this matchup with a dangerous Lima. While Talbott has more UFC experience, Lima has fewer holes in his game, is the more well-rounded fighter, and can win this fight wherever it goes. Lima is better in the grappling game, and he will be smart enough to pick his spots on the feet with the dangerous Talbott. He has beaten two very solid fighters since joining the UFC, and I believe he finds another way on Saturday.
Best Bet: Lima Sub/Dec (-135, Bet365) or ML (if it's -150 or Less)
Division: Middleweight
● Hermansson: 23-8-0 | 11 KO, 6 Sub | 54% Finish Rate
● Rodrigues: 14-6-0 | 10 KO, 3 Sub | 71% Finish Rate
Rodrigues burned us in his last fight against Cannonier when he had a chance to win that fight, and he blew it late. He owes us, and with this being a 3-round fight, he should have the full gas tank to do his damage. 71% of his UFC wins are by KO, and that's what he is hunting for.
Hermansson, who hasn’t stepped inside the octagon since February 2024, will have his hands full. Rodrigues averages more takedowns with better accuracy and a better takedown defense. Rodrigues also has a 53% striking accuracy, so don’t be shocked if we see him doing work on Harmansson against the cage.
Best Bet: Rodrigues KO/Dec (-155, Bet365)
Parlay: Topuria ML + Rodrigues ML (-115, MGM)
Finish Parlay: Smith by KO + McKinney by Sub + Rodrigues by Dec (+1536, Bet365)