The UFC makes its historic debut in Azerbaijan this Saturday from the iconic Baku Crystal Hall. This card marks the promotion’s first venture into the Central Asian region, and we can expect a night full of high-level fighting and exciting finishes. The event begins with prelims at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, with the main card airing live at 3 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN+.
Jamahal Hill (12-2, 1 NC) returns to action looking to halt a two-fight losing streak and reassert his presence in the division. Prior to his setbacks, Hill had earned the vacant light heavyweight title with a dominant five-round unanimous decision win over Glover Teixeira at UFC 283. Hill set a division record in that fight by landing 232 significant strikes, showcasing elite output and control over five rounds. Hill absorbs just 3.37 significant strikes per minute while landing over 7 per minute. Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5, 1 NC) could jump right back into title contention with a bounce-back win off a KO loss to Alex Pereira. Known for his explosiveness and raw knockout power, Rountree has scored eight of his 13 career wins via KO/TKO, including brutal finishes over Modestas Bukauskas, Karl Roberson, and Chris Daukaus. Rountree has the kickboxing advantage in this matchup and must use his low kicks to his advantage. Rountree's biggest fault could be his striking differential, allowing over 4 significant strikes per minute while only dishing out 3.
At plus money, I will back Hill as he is coming off 2 back KO losses, and if he loses another fight, I don’t know what that will mean for his career. He certainly has the bigger dog in this fight, and I believe he can outlast Rountree over a 5 round fight. We have seen Hill look good in rounds 4 and 5 before, and I believe if Hill cannot find the looping KO shot, his best advantage is to outwork Rountree with volume and drag him into deeper waters. Given his experience against elite opponents and the bounce-back motivation after two knockout losses, this is a strong buy-low spot on a former champion.
Orolbai (13-1-1) brings relentless wrestling and suffocating top control into his bout with Tofiq Musayev, who could be joining the UFC a tad too late. Orolbai can dish out damage, and take damage as we saw in his last fight, and he will not quit for our money. Orolbai averages over 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he will look to get this to the ground. He’s proven capable of neutralizing opponents with pace and pressure. This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup, and Orolbai’s wrestling volume will likely carry him to victory.
Every fight Tagir Ulanbekov is in seems to be a close one. He employs a measured grappling style, looking for strong positional control. When Tagir gets fights to the ground, he can keep his opponents there while doing work. Tagir won’t be afraid to strike, and when the time is right, he will work on the takedowns. I expect this fight to go long, but Ulanbekov will win a majority of the 15 minutes. Orolbai’s tendency to grind out fights, and the fact that he is very durable, lead me to believe this fight will at least make it into the middle of the 2nd round. We absolutely could see a finish, but I believe both fighters will make the other work to find it. Orolbai will look to get this on the ground, and when it gets there, I don’t expect a quick submission. Tofiq is very good in his own right. I believe we get an outright dog fight for 1.5+ rounds in this one.
Putting these two together in a straight parlay, I was able to get at -190 on DraftKings, and I believe it is good value based on my belief that both will win. Should either of them be as big of favorites on the ML vs their respective opponent? Probably not. Elliot tends to work his way through fights and is still not fluid at finding early finishes. Elliot should be able to find the damage over 2-3 rounds, and I believe with the building confidence, he may come out and find an early KO here! Same with Sadykhov, he is dangerous, but he has not looked his best in recent fights. He was also outstruck by his opponents in his past few fights. He is the better fighter, as Motta only stands a chance here in the first few minutes. Sadykhov can take this late and win in multiple ways. Both Elliot and Sadykhov have good paths of victory to find KOs, and both can grind out decision wins, take both double chances for better odds if you like!