Merab Dvalishvili is back in action this weekend, looking to defend his UFC bantamweight championship for the second time—this time in Jersey against Sean O'Malley. They faced off last year, and while some thought it was a close match, it felt like Merab clearly took the win. His trademark pressure, incredible conditioning, and relentless grappling really overwhelmed O'Malley. So we’ll see if O’Malley can turn it around in the rematch of Merab Vs O’Malley.
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Since there last fight, Merab has defeated Umar Nurmagomedov, extending his winning streak to 12. It seems like Vegas is finally recognizing his prowess—Merab is a solid favorite this time around after being the underdog in three of his last four bouts.
On the other hand, O'Malley has been on the sidelines, discussing ways to adjust his training and mindset. However, nine months might not be sufficient to patch up his takedown defense gaps. Unless he's miraculously picked up world-class wrestling skills in that time, it could be a tough night for him.
In their last encounter, Merab successfully completed 6 out of 15 takedowns, and I expect him to repeat that—if not improve upon it—here.
Ultimately, unless Merab strays from his wrestling approach and decides to box (which would be a questionable strategy), this is truly his fight to lose. So get ready for a barrage of takedowns and another one-sided victory for "The Machine."
Vegas is being pretty clear about this one—odds are pointing to Kayla Harrison breezing past Julianna Peña to snatch the UFC bantamweight title on Saturday night. And honestly? I agree wholeheartedly.
Sure, Harrison didn't exactly shine against Ketlen Vieira in the autumn, but before that, she submitted Holly Holm with ease. The only loss in her career was to Larissa Pacheco in PFL—no shame in that.
Peña stands at 11-5 and comes off a razor-close split decision win over Raquel Pennington. Before that, Peña faced a tough match against Amanda Nunes, where she was outclassed over five rounds, just a year after she made headlines by submitting Nunes in a stunning upset.
Peña's style—focused on wrestling and pressure—doesn’t seem likely to throw Harrison off her game. Harrison is not only physically stronger but also more technical on the mat, making her a significantly superior athlete. Unless Peña lands a lucky punch out of nowhere, this looks like Harrison's fight from start to finish.
My gut feeling is that she’ll win by decision—but I can’t shake the thought of her finishing strong!
Joe Pyfer's highlight reel is really taking off! His impressive 70-second knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault last summer reminded everyone just how hard he can hit. This came after a nail-biting decision loss to Jack Hermansson, who has definitely been Pyfer's toughest opponent to date. Prior to that, he made quick work of Gerald Meerschaert and Abdul Razak Alhassan. Now, though, he's set to face Kelvin Gastelum—a fighter with a wealth of experience against top competition.
Gastelum's latest win was against Daniel Rodriguez in Saudi Arabia, which had its own quirks. Originally, they were slated to fight at welterweight, but Gastelum couldn't make the cut, so they adjusted it to middleweight—and that switch really worked in his favor. Before that, he faced a submission loss to Sean Brady.
However, Gastelum is a gritty, battle-tested, and fighter who is still only 33 years young! While he may not excel in one specific area, he's quite good all around, which has kept him ranked for most of his career.
If Gastelum can close the gap on Pyfer, push him back against the cage, and maybe even score a takedown or two, he could very well grind out a gritty, veteran-type decision win. Pyfer hasn't faced that kind of pressure yet—and I'm not so sure he's fully prepared for it!
Patchy Mix is finally making his debut in the UFC, although he certainly didn’t get an easy start. The former Bellator champ is stepping in on short notice to face Mario Bautista, who was originally preparing for a match against Marlon Vera. While that's a challenge, it's not insurmountable for a fighter like Mix, who's 20-1.
On the flip side, Mario Bautista is enjoying a solid winning streak. He hasn't lost since 2021 and has impressive victories over Da'Mon Blackshear, Ricky Simon, and even managed to go the distance against the legendary Jose Aldo. However, Bautista's fighting style might not win him many fans—he tends to be a grinder, focused on clinching and smothering rather than creating exciting action. This raises an interesting question: Can Bautista slow down Mix?
Not likely! Mix has the height and reach advantage, along with excellent grappling skills. If Bautista tries to clinch, Mix can create space and land strikes from a distance. Should Bautista attempt to wrestle, Mix is quick to wrap him up, scramble, and threaten with submissions.
At 31, Mix arrives at the UFC in prime condition, having just delivered the best bantamweight performance outside the UFC. Bautista will certainly be a good challenge, but Mix has already proven himself against even tougher competitors.
This is a challenging matchup to predict—and it might not go the full distance. Vicente Luque is coming off a standout performance where he swiftly choked Themba Gorimbo out in under a minute. It was a victory he truly needed after facing back-to-back losses. Still, he showcased glimpses of the old Luque—intense, sharp, and dangerous. On the flip side, Kevin Holland easily outperformed Gunnar Nelson last time, outstriking him effortlessly and cruising to a decision. However, prior to that, he faced a quick submission by Reinier de Ridder and suffered an injury in a bout against Roman Dolidze.
One of Holland's biggest challenges continues to be his takedown defense and grappling weaknesses—something Luque might take advantage of. The interesting part is that Luque is actually the more skilled grappler of the two, and he's a solid striker as well. However, Holland's reach (with a 6-inch advantage), power, and striking volume present real challenges—something to note as Luque takes over 5 significant strikes per minute. Statistically, Holland is more defensively sound and precise with his strikes. If he can keep this fight at a distance and standing, he has a genuine chance to hurt Luque. But if Luque manages to close the distance and get inside, the Brazilian has the ability to finish things quickly—especially with his crafty submissions.