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After a stunning late withdrawal from Arman Tsarukyan this Friday with an apparent back injury, Penato Moicano has taken his place. To say this hasn’t swayed the fight odds would be a gross understatement. With Makhachev now favored by over a thousand on DraftKings, this might be a fight to stay away from.
With 14 straight UFC wins, Makhachev has finally risen from Khabib's shadow to stardom. Tonight, he can complete his fourth title defense, which would break Khabib’s record.
In terms of the fight, we’re in new territory here. With the main event changing just over 24 hours ago, it’s hard to say what Moicano will look like. The 35-year-old is on a four-fight winning streak, but taking on Islam is another beast. The oddsmaker has no faith in him, and we tend to agree. The short notice might make some interesting moments in the octagon with neither fighter prepared for the other. We’d lean towards staying away, though. If you are going to wager something, we suggest the Islam Makhachev Win By Submission line. It’s at least -125, which still provides some value.
Merab Dvalishvili dominated Sean O'Malley last year with relentless takedowns that sapped the striker's energy and morale. Dvalishvili didn't do much significant damage, but his suffocating wrestling style was too much. Now he faces Umar Nurmagomedov, who earned his title shot with a smothering win over Cory Sandhagen. Despite having just one Top 15 victory, Nurmagomedov (18-0) is favored against the reigning champion.
This fight will most likely feature five grueling rounds of wrestling exchanges and should go to a decision, presently at -250 odds. On the point spread, +5.5 points goes to Dvalishvili, which is interesting for an underdog bet, considering his experience with top grapplers and an affinity to keep fights close. A razor-thin decision seems the most likely outcome in this high-stakes clash.
This fight promises fireworks, with Jiri Prochazka’s aggressive “kill or be killed” style clashing against Jamahal Hill’s more measured and technical approach. Both fighters are coming off knockout losses to Alex Pereira, with Hill suffering a brutal defeat at UFC 300 and Prochazka enduring a similar fate at UFC 303.
Prochazka’s low defensive guard and upright posture leave him vulnerable, a flaw that Hill’s sharp boxing and protective style can exploit. Hill lands 7.18 significant strikes per minute—second in the division—while absorbing just 3.51 strikes, showcasing his efficiency and defensive prowess. He also leads the division in strike differential and ranks in the Top 10 for knockdown percentage.
The odds lean toward a short fight, with the round total set at 1.5. However, although the under is an enticing +114, the better play is Hill by knockout at +175. Hill's effectiveness on the feet and Prochazka's liabilities make this a likely knockout finish for Hill.
Another exciting fight involving Reinier de Ridder going up against Kevin Holland. He is a submission specialist who won his Octagon debut a year ago versus Gerald Meerschaert. Now known for his big arm-triangle finish in a just wild fight that proved his striking's still very, very rudimentary, and is even highly porous on the defensive end-something that should be expected for those instances when he rocked himself over many multiple instances against Meerschaert.
The only clear advantage between Holland and de Ridder is in striking: Holland. Even with a rib injury, Holland still had a good showing in his loss to Roman Dolidze at UFC 307. Earlier in the year, he finished Michal Oleksiejczuk via technical submission. With a three-inch reach advantage, Holland's strong technical striking makes him a tough matchup for de Ridder on the feet.
The odds are relatively close, thanks mainly to de Ridder's proficiency on the mat and Holland's historically poor takedown defense. If de Ridder approaches this fight like he did his last one with Meerschaert, though, he'll likely be out-struck by Holland, who is expected to be the best technical striker he has faced, with power and precision that might prove the difference.
The heavyweight fight between Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac pits two grapplers against each other in a battle of submission artists. Almeida comes off a first-round submission win over Alexandr Romanov to rebound from his first professional loss-a TKO against Curtis Blaydes. In that fight, Almeida dominated early but faltered after ending up in a bad position.
Spivac also rebounded from a loss with a fast, first-round armbar against Marcin Tybura following a Ciryl Gane TKO stoppage. It is a pretty rare heavy-heavy pairing with strengths on the floor, setting them up for an important fight at an enjoyable time in the division; there is the slight possibility this could devolve into a striking affair.
Given their skillsets, the fight could feature some thrilling grappling scrambles, though a finish seems less specific than the oddsmakers suggest. Spivac has good submission defense and may survive Almeida's attacks. With the round total set at just 1.5, there is value in expecting this fight to go longer—possibly to a decision if Spivac can hold his own on the mat.