UFC for 2025 is BACK!! And boy did we leave you guys with a banger our last article of 2024! We cashed all 3 + money plays, including a +200! Now while I cannot guarantee that with every article, it certainly is my goal!
We finished the 2024 season with our worst card being the last in Tampa, so I have been rather excited to get back into the swing of things! In 2024 we profited +34 units, with +15% ROI, and a 56% Hit Rate! Let's crush 2025!
If you haven’t grown to be a fan and support what Trey Ogden has done lately in the UFC, you are missing out! Even though I have questioned him in the past, pre-fights, he finds a way to win, and he seems to improve every time we see him. That's a dog I want to get behind!
Thiago Moises has been a good fighter to back up until his last 3 fights. He is coming in losing 2 of 3, and though the 2 fighters he lost to were very good, he looks to be slowing down a bit, not trending the right direction. Ogden comes in with a L5 record of 3-1-1, and he has the perfect recipe to grind out a dog win!
I fully expect this fight to see the ground, both fighters like to attempt takedowns, and I do expect Ogden to test Moises chin early on, and then test his physicality next. Ogden should be able to pin Moises to the mat and keep it there for 3 rounds. I don't think Moises has the ability to damage Ogden and the only path to a finish I see is a submission from Ogden. Moises should not be a -175 favorite in this spot!
Uros Medic may be my favorite look on the card this weekend. I don’t see how he has an issue with Punahele Soriano. Medic should be able to find him on the feet and if for some reason this gets to the ground, I trust Medic even more there!
Medic continues to impress me after having bounce back KO wins after his 2 loses, which were to 2 very talented fighters in Orolbai and Turner. In those 10 wins he has in his career, all 10 are by some form of finish, 8 KOs and 2 submissions.
Soriano does have some power in his hands, but I do believe that will be neutralized by Medics speed and power he has himself. If he catches Soriano or damages him, I expect him to act like a shark and finish his prey!
Cesar Almeida is another fighter on this card I don’t see running into too much trouble. He gets 39 year old Alhassan and I think Almeida gets this done. He is an incredibly skilled kickboxer who manages distance well and can find it fast. He has power in his hands and legs, and I trust him if he gets taken down. Cesar gets this done and he might find a KO here!
Soriano’s gameplan in this fight should be to get it to the ground, I don’t think he has a chance to withstand constant punishment on the feet from Medic. Having said that, it's hard for me to see Medic finding an early finish, Soriano isn’t that bad!
If Soriano can get this to the ground at any point, that will certainly help this push into the 2nd round, or later rounds. Soriano can be taken down as well and if Medic pursues that, I expect them to stay on the ground as well for a bit. I don’t see an early finish here and we should have a good look to see a late 2nd here!
Best Bets (3):
Dog: 0.5% Trey Ogden ML (+162) Bet365
Parlay: 1.5% Uros Medic ML + Cesar Almeida ML (+104) DK/Bet365
Round: 1.5% Uros Medic o1.5 Rounds (-155) ESPN