Fight Night is back in Vegas this Saturday at 7 PM PT. With some late changes to the lineup, we’ll bring you the most up-to-date card preview. With the main card finishing off the night in a flyweight match, that will likely determine who the next challenger for the belt! With so much on the line, you won’t miss this matchup between the Taira and Royval!
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Brandon Royval, the No. 1-ranked UFC flyweight contender, lines up across from the rising star Tatsuro Taira. Narrowly losing his last title shot against Alexandre Pantoja in 2023, Royval rebounded against Bardon Moreno with a huge win. Royval relentless striking approach makes him dangerous on his feet, shelling out about 4.3 significant strikes a minute! However, he typically takes in just as many strikes as he dishes out due to his loose defense. He isn’t known for his takedowns, either. This fight will be in Royval's wheelhouse if he can keep it on his feet.
Tatsuro Taira, on the other hand, has been flying up the ranks since his debut in 2022. He’s still undefeated at 6-0 following his match with Alex Perez, which ended in Perez getting injured. The 24-year-old Taira is also a keen striker, landing about 65% of his significant strikes. What makes Taira extremely dangerous in this matchup is his grappling ability. He has been landing just under two and a half takedowns a match with two submission attempts per fight. Taira's diverse and growing skill set makes him one to watch.
This fight will determine the next belt challenger, with Muhammad Mokaew out of the flyweight picture. Even though Royval holds the edge in experience in this matchup, Taira is currently the decisive betting favorite at -275. We tend to agree, leaning towards the submission victory line for Taira at +137 as of writing.
Brad Tavares has been in the UFC for 14 years and has been fighting top-level competition since debuting on The Ultimate Fighter. He’s known for his great low kicks and top-notch takedown defense, Tavares is durability as hell but, at times, has shown a propensity to get hurt in fights. On the other hand, South Korean fighter Jun Yong Park is an aggressive, action-packed fighter whose grappling has improved, allowing him to focus more on pressuring opponents on the feet and landing combinations.
The real question in this matchup becomes whether Park can hurt or overwhelm Tavares on the feet, as the likelihood of taking the Hawaiian down to the ground is low. Tavares is the more technical striker at range and could wear Park down with leg kicks, while Park will likely push the pace and try to work Tavares to the fence.
Njokuani comes in with a 23-10 record, 4-3 in the UFC. He's been a solid post-to-post striker, landing 4.09 significant strikes per minute at an excellent 61% accuracy, but has shown little in the way of grappling, though his takedown defense is respectable at 74%. After three straight losses, including a pair of knockouts, Njokuani answered with a split decision nod over Rhys McKee in his welterweight debut.
Gooden is 23-9 (2-4 UFC) and has been more active lately, averaging 5.08 significant strikes per minute but absorbing a higher volume at 6.68 strikes. His grappling has been more present, with a perfect 100% takedown accuracy, although his defense sits at 67%. He's coming off a submission win over Wellington Thurman, making him 3-2 in his last five fights.
This one will be a toss-up, as neither fighter has truly dominated lately. We’ll still give Njokuani the nob here, though. His striking ability makes him dangerous. We expect this one to slip to a decision, and with the number of strikes Gooden lets through, that could be the deciding factor.
Grant Dawson is still one of the best lightweights in the world. That loss to Bobby Green wasn't incredibly unexpected, but he's still 9-1-1 in the UFC, generally winning via his dominant top control. Madsen is just a hair above a 500 record in the UFC, showing off a competent—yet unexciting—wrestle-boxing style with little overall depth.
While there's always the possibility Garcia scores a knockout through Dawson's somewhat porous defense, the chances are slim. Garcia has yet to demonstrate elite takedown defense, and Dawson has routed consistent competition better than him.
Overall, it will be tough to see what changes in this fight for Dawson. His wrestling and control should be sufficient to care for Garcia, as he has been doing with other opponents.
McKenna and Polastri are well-rounded fighters who are comfortable both standing and on the ground. McKenna is often at a reach disadvantage in fights, something she typically tries to offset by throwing in combination and at a high pace. Conversely, Polastri works at a high volume but mixes in takedowns early.
A lot of this fight comes down to who has the better wrestling. While both fighters are proficient grapplers, McKenna has the slight edge in constantly taking her opponents down to the ground. Additionally, McKenna has had an entire camp to prepare for this event, which may give her an edge in what may turn into a grueling, wrestling-heavy fight.
In conclusion, McKenna's wrestling and preparation made her the likelier favorite to win.
Rodriguez is better than his recent losses suggest, as he’s only been defeated by ranked opponents. He's still a sharp counter-puncher with good takedown defense, and his forced move up to Middleweight due to Kelvin Gastelum's weight miss certainly didn't do him any favors. Of course, despite his win streak, Rodriguez still looks razor-sharp, and his pace is solid.
Morono is a different kind of unpredictable. While his punches don't look like power punches, they often land hard enough to drop opponents. His takedown defense could be better, but he has a knack for reversing position or finding a submission, so he rarely gets controlled on the ground. However, he recently had a pretty underwhelming performance against Niko Price, displaying fatigue and getting hurt.
Given the stylistic matchup, Rodriguez seems to be the better boxer and is unlikely to be taken down by Morono. Morono's only likely path to victory will be via knockdown or knockout, but given Rodriguez's durability and Morono's slowing hands, that path seems unreliable.
Nearing 40, Alhassan is still a powerhouse and explosive striker rather than a grappler despite his judo background. He looks to end fights quickly with massive power shots. Fremd, on the other hand, has yet to find a lot of success inside the UFC. After six fights, it's still unclear what he does well, as he's been consistently outwrestled, picked apart, and submitted more often than he managed to generate his offense.
That could give him a shot with Fremd's youth and Alhassan gassing out, but it's tough to sell without an apparent way to win. It's possible that Alhassan overwhelms him early or does enough with his power shots and calf kicks to take the win.