What's happening, MLB bettors? Make it a thrilling Thursday by diving into today's schedule of games with us. A lot of folks will be focusing on the Cubs vs. the Brewers and the Red Sox vs. the Yankees.
While those will probably turn out to be fun games to watch, I've found some nice betting value on the Mets vs. Nationals tilt at 4:05 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for August 21st. Best of luck, sports betting friends.
Oddsmakers are making the Mets a moderate favorite in this matchup, as the opening line priced the team from New York as a -140 favorite on the road. A little bit of money has shown up for the Nationals, so the price now sits in the -129 to -136 range in favor of the Mets.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a low amount of scoring in this one. The number opened at 7.5 runs, with the juice on the Under in the +100 to -1-5 range. A little bit of cash has come in on the Over, so much so that the line is now 8 at most online sportsbooks.
Sean Manaea didn't make his 2025 debut until July because of injury. The crafty veteran lefty looked fantastic in his first four starts, as he only allowed a combined 4 runs to the Royals, Reds, Angels, and Padres. Those performances had Mets fans excited about the rest of his starts.
Unfortunately for those Mets fans, Manaea has had a hard time since the calendar flipped over to August. He's 0-0 with an ERA of 7.98 through three starts so far this month. In Manaea's defense though, two of those starts were against pretty good offenses in Milwaukee and Seattle.
The Nats shouldn't pose as much of a threat to Manaea. Washington has a little bit of pop, but their lineup is pretty lackluster overall. I see Manaea turning in a solid outing through at least 5 innings of work.
MacKenzie Gore has one of the best curveballs in the game, and he uses it to generate a K-rate of 28.4% (86th percentile). The powerful lefty is just 5-12 with an okay ERA of 4.04, which is worse than one would think.
Gore had a hot start to the season, but he's cooled off considerably since the All-Star break. Even with that cool-off, Gore has looked more dominant over his last two starts.
He gave up just 2 earned runs to the Phillies and none to the Giants while fanning 17 hitters combined in the process. Something tells me that he'll keep that positive momentum going today at home.
I almost played this full game Under at 8 +100 at the open yesterday, but I laid off because of the lowly Nats bullpen. To combat Washington's subpar relievers, let's take the Under in the first 5 innings instead.
The wind is supposed to be blowing in at around 11 mph in DC for most of this game. That'll definitely help our chances for the Under, especially with two starters on the bump who don't induce lots of ground balls.
Speaking of the starters, I rate both MacKenzie Gore and Sean Manaea as well above-average. They've both struggled a bit over their last few starts, and that's probably why we're getting this u4.5 at a decent juice level.
Neither team hits lefties all that well, as the Mets are just 19th in WRC+ against southpaws and the Nats are even worse at 21st. Let's play the Under in the first 5 innings. Good luck, folks!