The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres square off tonight in the final game of their series at Petco Park in San Diego. With the first pitch set for 9:40 PM ET, both teams are sending shaky starters to the mound, which could make for a wild finish to the set. Ordinarily, this would be a fairly lopsided matchup given how these teams have done this season, but with these SPs on the bump, anything could happen, and it could be much closer than you’d think. Nonetheless, there are still plenty of opportunities for some bets.
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San Francisco will go with Landen Roupp, while the Padres hand the ball over to JP Sears, who just made his team debut earlier this month after coming over from the Athletics. Both pitchers are coming off some terrible outings and will be looking to bounce back, but only one team has the supporting cast to actually take advantage of that opportunity, and that’s how we’re going to make the most of this bet.
Kicking things off with the starters, neither inspires much confidence.
Landen Roupp comes into tonight with a 7-6 record, a 3.45 ERA, and a bloated 1.45 WHIP. Those season numbers generally look fine until you zoom in on what’s happened over his past few starts. In his most recent start against Tampa Bay, Roupp gave up 5 ER over just 3 innings. The game before that, he was fairly solid, but the Rays simply carved him up. Even in July, he’s had some games where he only went 4-5 innings and got yanked before the damage was too bad.
Despite the most recent meltdown, that trend could continue against a San Diego lineup that ranks in the top 10 in team batting average with a .251 AVG and has several hitters who are comfortable in their home park.
JP Sears isn’t exactly riding high either, especially after his past few games. His overall numbers sit at 7-10 with a dismal 5.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, and his Padres debut didn’t go well either. He gave up 10 hits and 5 earned runs in a loss to Arizona. That’s right, the team that sold their heart at the deadline. Sears has been bitten by the long ball all year as he’s allowed 24 HRs, which ranks among the highest in baseball. There’s no wonder that his ERA over the last 6 starts is nearly 6.00, and he’s walked 10 batters in that span.
The Padres are favored for a reason, but with both starting pitchers struggling quite a bit, the real question might be which bullpen holds up better, and both of them have fairly decent bullpens.
The Padres are listed as -157 favorites on the moneyline, while the Giants are +128 underdogs. The run line favors San Diego -1.5 at +137, while San Francisco +1.5 sits at -168. The over/under is set at 8 runs, with over -109 and under -112.
The Padres have won just 1 of their last 5 games, but overall have been solid at home this season, where they currently sit at 39-21. Meanwhile, the Giants have now lost 3 of their last 5, including a 5-1 defeat to these same Padres yesterday. On the road, San Francisco is just 26-38, and their offense has sputtered in San Diego, where they’ve scored just 5 runs total in their last 2 games at Petco Park. This rubber match could go either way, but as we mentioned, the bullpens may be the deciding factor.
The Padres come in as the better overall team, and it’s not even close. Not only do they hit better as a team in terms of in the field and at the plate, but they also have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, ranking 2nd in ERA with a 3.55 and 1st in OBA at .225. Their bullpen has been especially dominant late in games, which could come in handy if Sears has another short outing. In fact, their bullpen leads the MLB with a 2.93 ERA.
On the offensive side, it’s been Manny Machado doing most of the damage for the Padres. Machado leads San Diego in dingers with 20, RBIs with 73, and batting average with a cool .292. He’s also slugging .479 and getting on base at a .354 clip. No one in the Giants’ lineup is even close to being on that level right now.
San Francisco, by comparison, is in a rut where it’s been most of the season. They rank 26th in batting average with a .232, and 25th in both home runs and total runs scored. They simply haven’t been able to string together consistent offense. Willy Adames leads the team with 19 homers, and Wilmer Flores has driven in 63 runs on the season, but beyond them, that’s about it. Heliot Ramos is quietly having a solid season with a .265 AVG and .406 SLG, but he’s not the kind of hitter who can carry a lineup alone. Everyone will need to hold their weight if they’re going to keep this game close.
On a positive note for the Giants, their bullpen is surprisingly effective. They’re #2 just behind the Padres with a 3.30 ERA and have even given up fewer free bases. But will it be enough?
Overall, however, San Diego also leads San Francisco in nearly every key stat — SLG, OBP, ERA, Ks, and runs per game. Even their fielding metrics are a bit stronger.
This game really boils down to depth, consistency, and current form. Both pitchers have been roughed up lately, so we expect some early runs until the bullpens can take charge. But the Padres are better suited to take advantage of the situation, both at the plate and out of the bullpen. San Diego is 70-56 on the year, chasing the Dodgers in the NL West, and on top of that, they can't afford to drop games like this to a below-.500 Giants team — again.
Giants vs Padres Prediction: Padres 6, Giants 3
Best Bet: San Diego Padres moneyline at -157
The Giants, now 61-65, are fading from any playoff hopes and just haven’t shown enough offensively to back them as road underdogs. Roupp’s recent meltdowns make it hard to believe he can keep the Padres in check before the bullpen has to come in and clean up what Machado has done.