Happy Tuesday, fellow sports investors! Monday was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 3-1 to run our record to 125-101 on player props this season. It's been an up-and-down season, but at least the props have been pretty consistent.
Our earned runs props on Trevor Rogers and Freddy Peralta were rocking chair winners. We also picked up a small half-unit winner on Paul Skenes Over 5.5 strikeouts against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Our lone loser was on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who gave up 3 earned runs to the lowly Colorado Rockies to beat us by the hook. It's time to build on yesterday's positive mojo. Let's keep going strong with our top player prop and best bet for Tuesday, August 19. Best of luck, my friends. Let's put Tuesday in the win column!
NYM at WSH - 6:45 PM EDT (David Peterson vs. Jake Irvin)
This is a fantastic spot to fade Jake Irvin, who has given up 3 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 5 outings. The Nats' righty just hasn't had his best stuff this season, as he's gone over this total in 15 of his 25 starts. The Over is also 7-4 in Irvin's 11 home starts this season, so it's not like he has much of a home-field advantage.
After a horrific few weeks following the All-Star break, this Mets offense is finally back in a good groove. New York ranks 5th in overall WRC+ in the month of August and 2nd overall vs righties in 2025. Guys like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are always tough outs, and the bottom of the lineup is even coming around here lately.
I also like that Brandon Nimmo has torched Irvin for an expected batting average of .341 with 2 homers in his career against him. Let's cheer for lots of runs from the Metamucils in this one. Give me the Over!
Side Note: Irvin's earned runs line in the player props market is 2.5, but the Over is juiced in the -145 to -155 range. This means that there's quite a bit of value in this -130 number that we found at DK.
A's at MIN - 7:40 PM EDT (Jacob Lopez vs. Joe Ryan)
I don't mind paying a little extra juice, but feel free to play Under 8 at -105 or better if you'd rather go that route. Jacob Lopez has been the hottest pitcher in baseball in August. I know that's crazy to say out loud but check out the metrics below if you don't believe me.
The young lefty is 3-0 and has yet to allow an earned run this month. He should do just fine against a Minny lineup that hasn't hit all that great against southpaws this season (18th vs LH in WRC+). The Twins are also just 21st in that stat over the last couple of weeks.
On the flip side, I've always loved Joe Ryan because his stuff is excellent. The right-handed Minnesota ace never seems to walk many guys, and his K-rate is always pretty good. Let's play the UNDER tonight in Minneapolis with confidence!