Happy Monday, sports betting friends! We hope you had a fantastic weekend betting on MLB and maybe even some NFL preseason games. Our weekend was a rough one on the betting side of things, as our MLB picks went a dreadful 1-5 combined for Friday and Saturday.
We're currently sitting at 115-96 on the year with our MLB player props. Let's get hot again in baseball before our focus turns to college football and the NFL once September rolls around.
Check out our 2 player props and best bet for August 11th below. Best of luck with all your MLB action. Let's put Monday in the win column, folks!
MIN at NYY- 7:05 PM EDT
Will Warren has cashed this prop for us several times this season, and I'll keep riding him as long as the price is decent. The juice on this bad boy isn't ideal, but I love that Warren has given up 2 earned runs or fewer in 16 of his 24 starts this season.
The young righty spots his fastball well, and he gets so much extension that his 93-mph fastball plays more like 97. Warren's walk rate scares me a little, but I like how he's been steadily increasing his ground ball rate as the season has gone on. The 26-year-old has the stuff to keep this Twins lineup at bay for at least 5 or 6 innings.
Minnesota has been hitting well over the last week, but this team's season numbers aren't all that great. The Twins rank just 21st in WRC+ against righties in 2025. Let's start the night off with a juicy Under.
PIT at MIL - 7:40 PM EDT
What am I missing with this line? The Brewers have been the hottest team in baseball since the All-Star Break, and their offense just keeps finding creative ways to score runs. Milwaukee doesn't hit a lot of home runs, but they've mastered the art of playing small ball.
I'm not too high on Pittsburgh starter Andrew Heaney, especially when you consider that this Milwaukee offense just tagged him for 7 earned runs back in late June. Heaney does a good job of not walking many guys, but his K-rate is way down from what it was a year ago, which suggests that his stuff isn't what it once was.
Let's get back to the Brew Crew for a minute. Their lineup ranks 8th overall against lefties this season. They also rank 2nd in WRC+ over the last 14 days. Give me Milwaukee to score at least 3 runs in the first 5 innings.
Side Note: Heaney's earned runs line in the player props market is 2.5, but the Over is juiced in the -165 to -185 range. This means that there's quite a bit of value in this -115 number that we found at DK.
LAD at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT
I've been burned playing Under 1.5 a few times lately, but there are certain pitchers that I just can't resist playing, especially when they draw solid matchups. Almost none of this Angels roster has seen Yamamoto, so they could have a horrific time dealing with his nasty splitter.
This earned runs line is 13-9 to the Under in Yamamoto's 22 starts so far this season. The Japanese phenom's performances on the road have been especially impressive, as he's allowed 1 earned run or less in 9 of his 12 outings on the highway.
The Halos have a bit of power at the plate, and that's a definite concern with this wager. However, I can't get past the fact that this offense ranks just 23rd against righties overall this season. They also rank just 24th in WRC+ over the last two weeks. Give me another plus money Under!