What's happening, MLB bettors? Make it a sensational Saturday by diving into today's schedule of games with us. A lot of folks will be focusing on the Mets vs. the Brewers and the Astros vs. the Yankees.
While those will probably turn out to be fun games to watch, I've found some nice betting value on the Phillies vs. Rangers tilt at 7:15 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for August 9th. Best of luck, sports betting friends.
Oddsmakers are making the Rangers a moderate favorite in this matchup, as the opening line priced the team from Dallas as a -130 favorite at home. A little bit of money has shown up for the home team, so the price now sits in the -134 to -135 range in favor of Texas.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a low amount of scoring in this one. The number opened at 7.5 runs, with the juice on the Under in the -110 to -122 range. A little bit of cash has come in on the Under, which is understandable with two aces on the mound.
Jacob deGrom is finally healthy, and he's having a fantastic season. The veteran righty is 10-4 with an impressive 2.80 ERA, and he's fared quite well against the Phillies in his storied career. deGrom has a K-rate of 36.2% in 174 plate appearances against this Philadelphia roster.
The Phillies are a tough lineup to hold down, but they average about one run less on the road than they do at home. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are always tough customers, but deGrom has the stuff to hold them down in this Saturday night affair.
Jesus Luzardo has one of the best curveballs in the game, and he uses it to generate a K-rate of 27.2% (81st percentile). The powerful lefty is 10-5 with an okay ERA of 4.32, which is worse than one would think. His expected ERA is almost a full run lower at 3.64, so he's been the victim of bad luck.
What's hurt Luzardo this year has been the long ball. The 27-year-old has given up 12 homers this year, so he'll have to be careful when pitching to Adolis Garcia and Corey Seager. Philly recently got plenty of help at the trade deadline in the bullpen, so a late run surge from Texas isn't too likely.
The Under is the only way to look here, even though Philly can put up runs in bunches. Philadelphia has struggled to do much against deGrom, and I don't see that changing on Saturday night.
On the flip side, I haven't been a big believer in the Rangers' offense this year. Texas has looked a lot better lately, but they rank just 25th in WRC+ against lefties, and Luzardo is a pretty tough southpaw.
These two teams combine to score about 8.2 runs per game when adjusting for home and road splits. That being said, I adjusted my projection down to about 6 runs because of these dynamic starting pitchers. Give me the Under! Let's get it!