Happy Monday, sports betting family! We hope you had a fantastic weekend betting on some Major League Baseball. Our plays were rough to end the week, as Friday's record was 2-3.
We're currently sitting at 108-90 on the year with our MLB player props. July was good to us, as our ROI was over +5.5%. Let's buckle up for a nice August run before our focus turns to college football and the NFL once September rolls around.
Check out our 3 player props for August 4th below. Best of luck with all your MLB action. Let's put Monday in the win column, my friends!
BAL at PHI - 6:45 PM EDT (Povich vs. Luzardo)
The Phillies burned our Under on Friday night against the Tigers, but that won't deter me from trying it again tonight against the O's. Jesus Luzardo gives up more homers than I would like, but he still has one of the nastiest sweepers in the game today.
The powerful lefty draws a great matchup against Baltimore, who ranks just 21st in WRC+ this season against southpaws. Only three Orioles players have ever faced Luzardo before, so they could be in for a rude awakening, especially if his breaking stuff is on point.
On the flip side, Cade Povich scares the living daylights out of me, but I do like that his K-rate has improved quite a bit this season. None of these Phillies hitters have ever seen Povich, so I think that'll help our case for run suppression tonight, even in a hitter-friendly park.
Lastly, these two teams score just 8.62 runs per game when adjusting for home and away splits. I adjusted that downward a little because of how highly I rate Luzardo. Look for a 4-3 or 5-3 game in the City of Brotherly Love tonight. Let's ride the Under train!
MIL at ATL - 7:15 PM EDT
This is probably my favorite play on the Monday board. Fedde has been a major bust this season, and the Braves picked him up just to eat up some innings. Atlanta's starting pitching has been decimated with injuries, and they're just trying to make it to their favorite beach vacation spots.
Back to Fedde, he's been one of the worst righties in baseball this season. His ERA is well over 5 and his record is a paltry 3-11 on the year. He also draws a pretty tough lineup with the Brewers tonight at home.
Milwaukee has been dealt a couple of tough injuries to Sal Frelick and Jackson Churio, but they really haven't missed a beat on offense. The Brew Crew ranks 1st in WRC+ over the last 14 days, and I could see them hammering Fedde pretty hard tonight. William Contreras is batting .563 with 2 homers against Fedde in his career, so keep an eye on him tonight when playing this Over!
NYY at TEX - 8:05 PM EDT
I really wanted this juice to be in the -130 range, but what the heck, we'll still play it. As Prop Tailz, a friend of mine on X, pointed out to me this morning, a few of these Texas hitters have never seen Fried's filthy curveball. That fact alone should help Fried rack up a few more Ks than he normally would.
I like that Fried's median strikeout number is 6 this season. However, I adjusted that up to 6.5 because of the Rangers' high K-rate against lefties. Texas has the 5th-highest K-rate in MLB versus southpaws, so Fried could dominate this game.
Fried isn't known as a prolific K-machine, but I love that he's 6-1 to the Over this season against high K-rate teams. Let's cash another Over to close out Monday!