Tomorrow's MLB trade deadline (Thursday, July 31 at 6 p.m. ET) could very easily reshape the playoff picture — and with it, of course, the betting landscape. With around 24 hours to go, front offices and GMs are scrambling to upgrade rosters or cash in on expiring contracts that could change the odds moving forward. While this year’s deadline hasn’t brought any blockbuster action yet, the next few hours could tilt the scales in both divisions and futures markets.
We’re cutting through the noise and getting to what really matters for bettors — which moves could boost, or possibly sink, a team’s October odds.
If you’re looking for one bat who could immediately change a team’s playoff trajectory, it’s undoubtedly Eugenio Suárez.
He’s got 36 taters, nearly 90 RBIs, and a .904 OPS on the season — and the biggest part of all of that is he’s not locked into 2026. That makes him the perfect rental for a team looking to make the final push. Multiple contenders want him, but the Mariners appear to be the most aggressive suitor. Seattle already landed Josh Naylor to help the offense, but they’re still hungry for more, and they need him. If they land Suárez, they go from fringe playoff team with +2400 to legit October threat that could see +1000 or less.
The Yankees also need help at 3rd. DJ LeMahieu’s bat has faded, and the team’s been scraping together production through some of their other big names like Aaron Judge. If Suárez lands in the Bronx, the Yankees’ World Series odds, which are currently sitting around +1200 on most books, might tick up overnight. Especially if they also make a pitching move that goes with it.
One big question that lingers over Suárez is his hand. He was hit in the hand recently, but came back clean on imaging. He’s expected to play immediately with whatever team lands him.
The betting takeaway is this. Pay close attention to his landing spot. Suárez could boost run totals and moneyline value in August for whoever gets him.
Every year, there’s a premium on pitching at the deadline. Between injuries and cold spells, pitching is always in need of both rotations and bullpens. This year, it’s more like a panic. Between injuries and underperformance, there’s a major shortage of arms. That’s driving up prices and keeping some teams on edge.
Sandy Alcantara is a wild card we’ve been keeping our eye on. He’s been rocky since coming back from Tommy John, carrying a bloated 6.36 ERA. But he’s thrown 12 straight shutout innings recently and has 2 more years of control on his contract. That makes him a gamble with serious upside. He’s better than his numbers suggest. If the Yankees get him, it’s a huge swing move — not just for their rotation, but for bettors tracking Cy Young long shots and series matchups.
Mitch Keller is another name heating up around the rumor mill. He’s got a solid 3.53 ERA and a very team-friendly contract through 2028, which doesn’t really make him a rental. The Cubs are reportedly circling around him, and if they add Keller plus a bat, Chicago’s NL Central odds, currently sitting at +1500, could drop fast. They’re right behind the Brewers, who haven’t made a splash yet, and they’re sitting at +1700 to win the World Series.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are sniffing around both Keller and Ryan Helsley, which would fix 2 glaring problems at once: rotation depth and bullpen volatility. Toronto undeniably needs a spark in that area, and a double-move like that could flip their momentum and give their moneyline more value going into August.
Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly could also move and fit into the backend of a rotation. The Diamondbacks, as we mentioned, are sellers, and both pitchers are impending free agents. Gallen’s struggled, but Kelly is still getting the job done. Whoever picks him up is getting a solid mid-rotation starter. If it’s the Mets, Cubs, or even the Tigers, watch their updated win totals and playoff odds closely because either one of these could add a little bit of depth.
Closers don’t always get the headlines, but for bettors, a strong bullpen is the difference between cashing a bet slip and watching a 6-4 lead melt in the 8th.
That’s why guys like David Bednar and Ryan Helsley are so important in the trade discussion. Bednar’s back in form, with a decent 1.59 ERA and a perfect save record since April 19. However, he’s not going to go cheap, but multiple contenders are ready to pay the price to reel him in. If the Dodgers land him, it solidifies a bullpen that’s been leaking late-game runs. That could easily impact overs/unders and late-inning live bets.
Same for the Tigers, who are already playoff-bound and could be sneaky buyers in the final hours. If Detroit adds a closer like Bednar or Helsley, their playoff win potential rises — and so do the odds of them covering run lines down the stretch. Sure, they have Vest, who’s been phenomenal, but having an extra arm in there to take the bump just before him would help in preserving those leads.
Also in the mix for bullpen trades are Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Anthony Bender. Of course, none of them are A-listers, but they can firm up a shaky bullpen. Either of these RPs can take down 3 batters at any given time, so there’s value. Keep that in mind for late-game betting, especially if you’re working second-half or in-play markets.
Despite being 24 hours out from the MLB trade deadline, some teams still haven’t picked a lane — and that’s holding up the market. For bettors, that creates uncertainty but also opportunity if you can make the right pick. For example, Seattle is sitting at +2400 now, but if they land Suárez, you just got a really good deal with that price.
The Angels are a mess, and with just a 3.9% playoff chance, they should sell. But they’ve got talent in Taylor Ward and Jo Adell, both of whom are drawing interest from around the league. If either gets traded to a team like Philadelphia or Seattle, it adds pop to those offenses and will easily flip some numbers. The Phillies, already solid bets to make the playoffs, could be a run-scoring machine with another outfielder added.
The Rays and Twins are also quiet, and both could make small moves, but nothing suggests a big splash like paying up for someone like Suárez. Keep that in mind before jumping on either of them for division or wild card props — they don’t seem to be acting like teams that want to go deep in October. Sometimes, a GM has to call a spade a spade.
The Mets are definitely making noise. Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox is a target, and while his numbers have dipped in recent weeks, his tools are still elite, and he’ll get through this. The Mets could push chips in on this one as they’re looking great in the AL East. If they land Robert and a reliever, that’s a team you start respecting in any playoff series.
If you're looking at value down the board, keep an eye on these 4 teams.
The Cubs. If they add Mitch Keller and maybe Suárez, though we think it’s unlikely, but they’re in the mix, they become a real threat in a wide-open NL Central. Futures in the +1500 range could drop under +1000 with a pair of solid moves.
The Blue Jays. They’re sitting pretty at the top of the AL East, but rumors say they could add Helsley and a bat. That’s a big swing in one day. They’re sitting at +1400, which is already a steal, but a move like this could push them to +700 or lower.
The Phillies. Already solid all around, but if they go for a bat like Ward or Suárez and maybe another reliever, they could be the NL favorites by next week despite trying to chase the Mets. A small addition might not shift odds much, but a big one could push them past the Tigers and Mets in books.
The Tigers. Quietly building something more despite being the #1 team in baseball for most of the season. They’ve already got Chris Paddack and are looking at Bednar. If they grab a bat too, this team isn’t just a division winner — they could win a series or two or possibly look at a first-round bye. Odds are still generous, so pay attention.
We expect a flurry of deals between noon and 5 p.m. ET. That final hour before the 6 p.m. cutoff is where the biggest names usually move. Keep an eye on X, MLB Trade Rumors, and breaking news alerts — then head to your sportsbook and check how the odds react. If you’re fast, you can get your futures bets in before the odds shift since futures odds tend to move a little slower.
Don’t wait for the next morning to place your futures bets. Tomorrow’s trade deadline isn’t just about the rosters—it’s about your edge in the futures market.