Welcome to the Hump Day slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on the Dodgers vs. the Reds and the Rays vs. the Yankees.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Pirates vs. Giants and Rangers vs. Angels matchups. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for each of these games on July 30. Best of luck, my friends.
PIT at SF - 3:45 PM EDT (Burrows vs. Webb)
Pirates Unders have been incredibly good to us this season, and there's no reason to jump off that money train just yet. The Under is 61-43 overall in Pittsburgh's games this season. The Under is also 31-18 when Pittsburgh plays on the road.
Mike Burrows takes the mound for the Pirates, and although he's not well-known, he has pitched pretty well so far this season. The young righty has excellent off-speed stuff, and he should be able to use it to keep this free-swinging Giants lineup off balance. San Fran has been pretty hot at the plate lately, but Burrows should be able to contain them in this afternoon delight on Wednesday.
The Giants will counter with their ace, Logan Webb. The veteran righty has one of the best walk rates in the game, at just 5.3% (91st percentile). The 28-year-old does an excellent job of inducing soft contact, as he's ranked in the 87th percentile in ground ball rate.
I don't see the Pirates doing much of anything against Webb's nasty arsenal of pitches. Give me the Under in this spot all day long.
TEX at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT (Eovaldi vs. Soriano)
We cashed a K prop on Nathan Eovaldi last Friday against the Braves, and I could see him dominating this overly aggressive Angels lineup as well. He's been dealing with a sore back, but you'd never know it by how he looked in his last start. I also like that Eovaldi has held this Halos roster to a batting average of just .237 through 111 batters faced.
Jose Soriano has been roughed up a little bit by this Rangers team over the course of his young career. That being said, Soriano has improved quite a bit this season, and I love that he has the best ground ball rate in baseball (68.5%).
LAA's offense does scare me a little, but I really think Eovaldi can hold them down for at least 6 innings in this one. Texas's lineup has been struggling for most of the 2025 campaign, so I could see a decent outing from Soriano as well.
I don't really love either team's bullpen, but I don't think that will matter all that much in this game. These two teams combine to score just 8.72 runs per game this season, when adjusting for home / away splits. I adjusted that down to 6.98 expected runs because of these two above-average starting pitchers. Let's bag another Under!