Happy Hump Day, sports betting family! Tuesday was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 2-1 to run our record to 101-79 for player props on the season. Our full game Unders wound up going 0-1, as there was an offensive explosion in the Tigers vs. Pirates game.
Our two winners were on Jacob deGrom and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as both of them turned in dominant starts. deGrom struck out 9 A's hitters to easily cash our Over 6.5 ticket. Yamamoto only allowed one earned run through 5 innings of work against the Twins, which meant a winner on our Under 1.5 earned runs prop.
Wednesday's card is a bit light, but it does have a fascinating twist. I've got a strikeout prop on tap and our first team total play of 2025. Best of luck with all of your Hump Day action. Let's get to the plays!
CIN at WSH - 12:05 PM EDT
Soroka has cashed a few tickets for me already this season, and I think he's a lot better than his 3-7 record and ERA suggest. His expected ERA (3.22) is almost two runs less than his actual ERA (5.10), which tells me that he's been the victim of some crazy bad luck so far this year.
I was a bit surprised to see DK offering this much plus money on Soroka, especially at home, where he's gone over this number of Ks in 4 of his 6 starts. I also like that Soroka has fanned 6 or more batters in 3 of his 5 starts against high strikeout rate teams. Look for the 6'5" hurler to keep the Reds hitters off balance for most of the afternoon.
Soroka's fastball and changeup aren't all that wonderful, but both his slurve and his sinker are well above league average. Cincy ranks just 22nd against the sinker, so we have that going for us as well. Give me the Over at this plus money price all day long in our nation's capital.
DET at PIT - 12:35 PM EDT
This is a market I've never dove into before, but it piques my interest enough today for me to make an investment in it. I like fading Pittsburgh starting pitcher Bailey Falter any way I can. According to my numbers, he's one of the worst lefties in all of baseball.
Falter has one of the lowest K-rates in baseball at 14.8%. The 28-year-old also doesn't get a lot of ground balls, which means he can't rely on the double play ball to get him out of trouble with runners on base. Falter also has one of the highest hard-hit rates in baseball at 45.6%.
As for the matchup, it's all systems go on an Over. The Tigers have the 3rd-highest WRC+ against lefties this season, and they have the 10th-highest WRC over the last 30 days. Javy Baez has also homered off of Falter in two of his three career at-bats against him. Give me another Over, Scotty!