The 2025 Home Run Derby lineup is absolutely loaded with raw power, rising stars, and a few seasoned veterans who can still go yard when it counts. With the betting odds tight at the top and a few sneaky values deeper down the board, this year’s Derby could go down as one of the most competitive in recent memory.
With the Derby kicking off tonight, there’s still plenty of time to get your bets in so we’re going to break down the field and figure out who really has the best shot to walk away with the crown.
Cal Raleigh isn't just the betting favorite — he's the statistical monster of the field. He enters the Derby with a whopping 38 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a league-best 1.011 OPS, making him the most productive power hitter in baseball right now. He’s also doing it with a respectable .259 AVG, showing he's not just swinging for the fences and missing. What really blows everyone’s mind is that he’s a veteran catcher who has never crushed the ball like he has this year.
Raleigh ranks 1st in both home runs and RBIs, and 2nd in OPS among all MLB players, not just the Derby field. He’s got the stamina, the compact power stroke, and the kind of consistency that can undoubtedly win these contests. Add in his recent hot streak of 3 HR in his last 6 games, and it’s hard to make a case against him.
Honestly, this is his event to lose — and the odds reflect that. At +295, he’s not giving you tons of value compared to the others, but he’s giving you the safest bet. We’ll take this plus money wager any day.
Oneil Cruz brings a different kind of intrigue. At 6'7", he's built like a basketball player, and when he connects, the ball flies. There’s a lot to be said about the reach with a bat.
But this year, his numbers haven’t quite matched the hype. Cruz is batting just .212, with 16 home runs, 37 RBIs, and a .733 OPS — all much lower than the rest of the field, but don’t let that fool you.
What keeps him this high in the odds is potential. Cruz can hit absolute moonshots, and he’s capable of stringing together 450-foot bombs like it's batting practice. But in a timed Derby format, that low contact rate might cost him. If he finds a rhythm, he could absolutely go the distance — but there’s just as much bust potential here as boom. Remember, season numbers don’t always reflect at the Derby.
At 22, James Wood is the youngest player in the top half of the odds, and his game is rounding into form beautifully. With 24 dingers, 69 RBIs, a .278 average, and a .915 OPS, he’s putting together a borderline All-Star-caliber season. Given that this is only his 2nd season in the majors, this could be the start of a beautiful career.
His size, 6'7" and 234 lbs, makes him a nightmare for pitchers, but in a Derby setting, it’s all about leverage and mechanics. Fortunately for Wood, he has both. He’s a natural slugger with a fluid swing, and his power is consistent across the field.
He may not be as hot as Raleigh, but Wood brings some serious value at +450, especially if you think Raleigh’s pace might slow under the lights.
It wouldn’t be a Home Run Derby without someone from the Braves and Matt Olson (+800) is always a threat in a power competition. He’s got 17 homers, 61 RBIs, and a .830 OPS. That’s strong, but not what we’d consider elite. His recent form isn’t eye-popping either. But if he gets in a groove, and he easily could, he can go on long streaks of bombs. He’s done it before, and experience matters in this format.
Brent Rooker (+850) is having a sneaky good season as well. He’s hitting .279 with 20-yard bombs and 54 RBIs, with a solid .861 OPS. He’s been especially effective at home and in July, and his consistency makes him a sleeper if others falter. Keep an eye on this one as he could very well break out from the pack.
Byron Buxton (+950) might be the most interesting wild card of the group. With 21 HRs, 56 RBIs, and a .925 OPS, he’s arguably having a top-5 power season among the field. But we all know that the Derby isn’t just about stats — it’s about endurance, rhythm, and health. Buxton’s durability has always been in question so risk is baked into his longer odds. It’s an event that wears down even the fittest of players.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has shown flashes of elite power, but with 17 homers, 43 RBIs, a .250 AVG, and a .861 OPS, he’s been hot and cold all season. Sure, he’s fun to watch and could ride a streak in the early rounds, but he’ll need to be flawless to go all the way.
Junior Caminero is one of the most exciting young bats in the game, but this might be too much too soon. He’s holding his own with an impressive 23 HRs and 60 RBIs, though his .790 OPS lags behind the others. At +1200, you’re betting on the upside more than performance, but if he puts together a perfect round, anything could happen and you could walk away with a fat stack of cash.
If you want the best mix of power, consistency, and current form, Cal Raleigh is the obvious pick and it’s the reason he leads the pack when it comes to odds. He leads in every key category and has shown zero signs of slowing down. At +295, you’re not getting a long-shot payout, but you’re betting on the most dominant slugger in baseball right now. If he wins it out, we’re pretty sure nobody in the baseball world would be surprised.
If you're chasing value, James Wood at +450 makes a lot of sense. He’s putting up monster numbers and has the build and rhythm that plays well in the Derby. If he catches fire early and rides it out, he’s got enough juice to win it all.
Avoid getting lured in by flashy names with middling numbers. The Derby may be a show, but it's still a game of reps, rhythm, and production — and Raleigh is running that show in 2025.