Happy Friday, sports betting family! Thursday was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 2-1 to run our record to 91-71 on the season for player props. It's nice to finally turn the corner after a tough start to the season.
Both of our earned run props got us to the payout window yesterday. David Peterson turned in a masterful performance against the Orioles, who continue to be baffled by left-handed pitchers. The Cubs' offense got the job done for us by touching up Chris Paddack for lots of runs to cash our Over ticket on him. Our lone loss was by the hook on Bryan Woo, who just couldn't find one more K against the Yanks.
We're sitting at 10-6 this week, so let's keep building on the profits with another winning day on Friday. Check out our three player props for July 11th below. Best of luck with all your weekend MLB action.
MIA at BAL - 7:05 PM EDT
I think Cabrera is one of the most underrated righties in the National League. His stuff is excellent, and he has the ability to pitch out of jams by getting lots of Ks. His command worries me at times, but I think he matches up incredibly well against the O's.
Baltimore strikes out the 4th most in MLB vs righties, so look for Cabrera to use his nasty breaking stuff early and often in this outing. The young Marlins righty hits 97 on the gun with both his fastball and his sinker.
The blowup factor is always in play at Camden Yards, but I think Cabrera turns in another solid start. He's found 6 Ks or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. Give me the Over to kick things off on Friday.
PIT at MIN - 8:10 PM EDT
Faithful readers of the column know that I've had an affinity for Joe Ryan for quite some time. His advanced stats are always off the charts, and he's been especially better at home than on the road.
I love that Ryan's K-rate ranks in the 87th percentile and that he gets a fantastic matchup against Pittsburgh this evening. I can't overstate just how bad this Pirates lineup has been this year.
They have the 7th-highest K-rate in baseball against righties, and they never seem to score many runs at all when Paul Skenes is on the hill (which he is tonight). I can see Ryan turning in an 8 or 9 K performance with relative ease.
ATL at STL - 8:15 PM EDT
I was torn on whether to give out the Liberator's strikeouts or his earned runs. I settled on the earned runs because I've made a lot of coin fading my Braves against lefties this year. Atlanta ranks just 20th in WRC+ against southpaws in 2025, and I don't expect them to put up many runs on the road tonight in Saint Luay.
Liberatore has pitched pretty well this season, as he's 6-6 with a nice ERA of 3.70. His fastball is nothing special, but I love his changeup and all of his breaking pitches. I think he should carve up this Braves lineup pretty easily.
Atlanta ranks just 28th against the curveball and 25th against the changeup. Liberatore throws both of those pitches 13% of the time, so look for him to only give up a run or two in 5 or 6 solid innings of work at home.