Happy Hump Day, sports betting family! Tuesday was good for us on the MLB side of things. We went 3-2 to run our record to 87-69 for player props on the season. Our full game Unders wound up going 2-1, and our strikeout props finished up at 1-1.
Eury Perez turned in a dominant performance against the Reds to cash our Over on him. Unfortunately, the rain delay in the Yankees vs. Mariners game really ruined the groove that Logan Gilbert was in, so we lost our Over on him.
Check out our three player props for July 9 below. Best of luck with all your Wednesday MLB action. Let's get to the plays!
TOR at CWS - 2:10 PM EDT
Look, I get that the White Sox have been putting the ball in play more over the last couple of weeks, but they're still one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Pale Hose have the 3rd-highest K-rate in baseball this season, and Lauer has baffled this lineup through 30 batters faced (36.7% K-rate).
I like how the Blue Jays have steadily increased Lauer's workload over the last month or so. He's still getting used to being in the starting rotation, but I think it's a good sign that he threw 94 pitches last week through six innings of work against the Angels.
Lauer struck out six hitters in that game on the 4th of July, and I think he can get us at least 5 Ks in this afternoon delight in the Windy City. He's hit this Over in 3 of his last 4 starts. Give me the Over at this plus money!
PHI at SF - 3:45 PM EDT
This one's a little juicier than I'd like, so I also played a little bit of Over 6.5 for +142 at FanDuel, if you feel so inclined. Luzardo has excellent stuff, and he's 11-7 to the Over vs. this line in 2025. The powerful southpaw struggled to generate much swing and miss back on April 15th against the G-Men, but I think he redeems himself here on the road in San Fran.
I love that Luzardo's K-rate ranks in the 81st percentile in baseball this season. That tells me that his wicked sweeper is breaking at max capacity so far. It also doesn't hurt that he hits 97 mph on the gun regularly with his fastball.
As for the matchup, it's all systems go on an Over. The Giants have been hitting better, but they really struggled to make contact against lefties. San Fran has the 5th-highest K-rate in MLB versus southpaws. Give me another Over, Scotty!
PIT at KC - 7:40 PM EDT
I picked this alt line up at a local book here in TN called Action 247. We've made a small boatload of cash fading this Pirates team, and there's no reason to jump off that train yet. Pittsburgh has the 2nd-highest K-rate in baseball against lefties this season, so Bubic should get plenty of shots at punchouts.
Bubic has K'd 7 or more hitters in 4 of his 8 home starts this season. Yes, I know that's only a 50% hit rate, but stay with me here, you math majors.
With the +125 odds, we only need to win 44.4% of the time to break even. That's an implied edge of 5.6%, which I will put money on all day long. Look for Bubic to dominate a Pirates lineup that has been anemic all season.